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High on Complexity, Low on Evidence: Are Advanced Forecasting Methods Always as Good as They Seem?

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  • Paul Goodwin

Abstract

Goodwin covers the pros and cons of complexity in advanced forecasting methods and warns that recommendations based on them should be supported by strong evidence of reliability. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Goodwin, 2011. "High on Complexity, Low on Evidence: Are Advanced Forecasting Methods Always as Good as They Seem?," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 23, pages 10-12, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2011:i:23:p:10-12
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    Cited by:

    1. Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V. & Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2018. "When should we use simple decision models? A synthesis of various research strands," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 17-25.
    2. Jiří Šindelář, 2019. "Sales forecasting in financial distribution: a comparison of quantitative forecasting methods," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 69-80, December.

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