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The Long-Term Risks of Global Stock Markets

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  • Philippe Jorion

Abstract

This research investigates the persistence of investment risk across time horizon, a crucial issue in asset allocation decisions. Previous empirical results have focused mainly on US data and suffer from limited sample size in the analysis of long-horizon returns. Investigation of a longterm sample of thirty countries provides additional empirical evidence. The results are not reassuring. There is no evidence of long-term mean reversion in the expanded data sample. Downside risk is not reduced as the horizon lengthens. On the positive side, a globally diversified portfolio would have displayed much less downside risk than any single market.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Jorion, 2003. "The Long-Term Risks of Global Stock Markets," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(4), Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:fma:fmanag:jorion03
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernandez, Pablo & Bermejo, Vicente J., 2008. "IBEX 35: 1992-2007 - Rentabilidad y creación de valor," IESE Research Papers D/725, IESE Business School.
    2. Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
    3. Fernandez, Pablo & Bermejo, Vicente J., 2008. "Las empresas españolas en 2007 (y en el periodo 1993-2007). Rentabilidad y creación de valor," IESE Research Papers D/732, IESE Business School.
    4. Mika Vaihekoski, 2024. "Revisiting Stock Market Index for the Helsinki Stock Exchange 1912–1981," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-14, February.
    5. Fernandez, Pablo & Carabias, Jose M., 2007. "Rentabilidad y creación de valor para los accionistas de las empresas españolas y del IBEX 35. 1993-2006," IESE Research Papers D/673, IESE Business School.
    6. Peter Vlaar, 2005. "Defined Benefit Pension Plans and Regulation," DNB Working Papers 063, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Stéphane Hamayon & Florence Legros, 2008. "La gestion stratégique d’actifs d’un fonds de réserve face au risque financier," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 7(1), pages 205-217.
    8. Jia Wang, 2011. "Impact of investment horizon on the performance of value versus growth styles and style allocation," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(6), pages 438-446, December.
    9. Stéphane Hamayon & Florence Legros & Pradat Yannick, 2016. "Non gaussian returns: which impact on default options retirement plans? [Distribution non gaussienne des rendements : quel impact sur les options par défaut des plans d'épargne retraite ?]," Working Papers hal-03003588, HAL.
    10. Brunner, Gregory & Hinz, Richard & Rocha, Roberto, 2008. "Risk-based supervision of pension funds : a review of international experience and preliminary assessment of the first outcomes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4491, The World Bank.

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