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Trading risk, market liquidity, and convergence trading in the interest rate swap spread

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  • John Kambhu

Abstract

While trading activity is generally thought to play a central role in the self-stabilizing behavior of markets, the risks in trading on occasion can affect market liquidity and heighten asset price volatility. This article examines empirical evidence on the limits of arbitrage in the interest rate swap market. The author finds both stabilizing and destabilizing forces attributable to leveraged trading activity. Although the swap spread tends to converge to its fundamental level, it does so more slowly or even diverges from its fundamental level when traders are under stress, as indicated by shocks in hedge fund earnings and the volume of repo contracts. In addition, repo volume falls when convergence trading risk is higher, and reflects shocks that destabilize the swap spread. The behavior of repo volume in particular points to how trading risk affects market liquidity and asset price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • John Kambhu, 2006. "Trading risk, market liquidity, and convergence trading in the interest rate swap spread," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(May), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2006:i:may:p:1-13:n:v.12no.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. John Kambhu & Til Schuermann & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "Hedge funds, financial intermediation, and systemic risk," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Dec), pages 1-18.
    2. Boyson, Nicole M. & Stahel, Christof W. & Stulz, Rene M., 2006. "Is There Hedge Fund Contagion?," Working Paper Series 2006-1, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    3. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    4. Chung, Hon-Lun & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2010. "Impact of credit spreads, monetary policy and convergence trading on swap spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 118-126, March.
    5. Li, Shaoyu & Zhu, Chunhui & Shang, Yuhuang, 2023. "Hedging demand and near-zero swap spreads: Evidence from the Chinese interest rate swap market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 170-185.
    6. Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & Rene M. Stulz, 2008. "Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 14068, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Koch, Nicolas, 2014. "Tail events: A new approach to understanding extreme energy commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 195-205.
    8. Boyson, Nicole M. & Stahel, Christof W. & Stulz, Rene M., 2011. "Liquidity Shocks and Hedge Fund Contagion," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    9. Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & René M. Stulz, 2010. "Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1789-1816, October.

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