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Malthus to Solow

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  • Gary D. Hansen
  • Edward C. Prescott

Abstract

A unified growth theory is developed that accounts for the roughly constant living standards displayed by world economies prior to 1800 as well as the growing living standards exhibited by modern industrial economies. Our theory also explains the industrial revolution, which is the transition from an era when per capita incomes are stagnant to one with sustained growth. We use a standard growth model with one good and two available technologies. The first, denoted the Malthus technology, requires land, labor, and reproducible capital as inputs. The second, denoted the Solow technology, does not require land. We show that in the early stages of development, only the Malthus technology is used, and, due to population growth, living standards are stagnant despite technological progress. Eventually, technological progress causes the Solow technology to become profitable, and both technologies are employed. In the limit, the economy behaves like a standard Solow growth model.

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  • Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, . "Malthus to Solow," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:257
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 323-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John Laitner, 2000. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(3), pages 545-561.
    4. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    6. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, . "Monopoly rights: a barrier to riches," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How much inequality would Plato tolerate?
      by YouNotSneaky! in YouNotSneaky on 2007-05-15 06:59:00
    2. Ed Prescott to Speak at ANU
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2014-07-29 07:46:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Olsson, Ola & Hibbs, Douglas Jr., 2005. "Biogeography and long-run economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 909-938, May.
    2. Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2002. "Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 775-814, October.
    3. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
    4. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2010. "The Role of the Structural Transformation in Aggregate Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 129-173.
    5. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Mehmet Yorukoglu, 2005. "Engines of Liberation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 109-133.
    6. Howard Petith, 2005. "Capitalism, Unemployment and the Transition to the Contemporary Pattern of Growth," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 649.05, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    7. Hernando Zuleta, 2007. "Why labor income shares seem to be constant?," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 551-557.
    8. Ngai, L. Rachel, 2004. "Barriers and the transition to modern growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1353-1383, October.
    9. Parantap Basu & Alessandra Guariglia, 2004. "Inequality and Industrialization," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0401, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    10. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June.
    11. Diego Restuccia, 2004. "Barriers to Capital Accumulation and Aggregate Total Factor Productivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 225-238, February.
    12. Matteo Cervellati & Piergiuseppe Fortunato, 2004. "Natural resources and the wealth of nations in a globalized world economy," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04068, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    13. Hernando Zuleta, 2008. "Factor Saving Innovations and Factor Income Shares," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 836-851, October.
    14. Tomasz Michalski, 2006. "Borders, Endogenous Market Access and Growth," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_007, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    15. Tamura, Robert, 2002. "Human capital and the switch from agriculture to industry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 207-242, December.
    16. Galor, Oded & Mountford, Andrew, 2002. "Why are a Third of People Indian and Chinese? Trade, Industrialization and Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 3136, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Olsson, Ola, 2001. "The Rise of Neolithic Agriculture," Working Papers in Economics 57, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    18. Tasso Adamopoulos, 2008. "Land Inequality and the Transition to Modern Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), pages 257-282, April.
    19. Hernando Zuleta, 2004. "A Note on Scale Effects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(1), pages 237-242, January.

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