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Model fit and model selection

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  • Narayana R. Kocherlakota

Abstract

This paper uses an example to show that a model that fits the available data perfectly may provide worse answers to policy questions than an alternative, imperfectly fitting model. The author argues that, in the context of Bayesian estimation, this result can be interpreted as being due to the use of an inappropriate prior over the parameters of shock processes. He urges the use of priors that are obtained from explicit auxiliary information, not from the desire to obtain identification.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2007. "Model fit and model selection," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 349-360.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2007:i:jul:p:349-360:n:v.89no.4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    3. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    4. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    5. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 431-449, May.
    6. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    7. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Kocherlakota Speaks
      by Agent Continuum in Agent Continuum on 2010-05-17 23:43:50

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    Cited by:

    1. Lee E. Ohanian, 2007. "Commentary on \\"Model fit and model selection\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 361-370.
    2. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis with Potentially Misspecified Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1415-1450, September.
    3. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-31.
    4. Canova, Fabio & Paustian, Matthias, 2011. "Business cycle measurement with some theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 345-361.
    5. Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo, 2015. "Estimation of ergodic agent-based models by simulated minimum distance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 148-165.
    6. Celso Jose Costa Junior, 2016. "Understanding DSGE models," Vernon Press Titles in Economics, Vernon Art and Science Inc, edition 1, number 70.
    7. Dilip Nachane, 2017. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Modelling :Theory And Practice," Working Papers id:11699, eSocialSciences.

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    Econometric models; Macroeconomics;

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