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The mechanics of a successful exchange rate peg: lessons for emerging markets

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  • Michael J. Dueker
  • Andreas M. Fischer

Abstract

To the surprise of many market watchers, Thailand?s exchange rate peg to the dollar collapsed in July 1997, leading to similar rounds of currency devaluations in other East Asian countries. This study seeks to determine whether there were identifiable contrasts in implementation between Thailand?s peg and a perennially successful peg?Austria?s peg to the Deutsche mark?that would have hinted at problems for Thailand prior to July 1997. The comparison suggests that Thailand was not sufficiently vigilant about keeping its inflation rate low in the early 1990s. By 1995, Thailand faced a situation where a tight monetary policy involving high domestic interest rates would not always have created disinflationary pressure, as high interest rates also tended to attract greater capital inflow to Thailand. In this environment, Thailand?s monetary policy became erratic and failed to maintain the exchange rate peg.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 2001. "The mechanics of a successful exchange rate peg: lessons for emerging markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 47-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2001:i:may:p:47-56:n:v.83no.5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi & Bushra Naqvi & Nawazish Mirza, 2013. "Choice of Anchor Currencies and Dynamic Preferences for Exchange Rate Pegging in Asia," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 37-49, July-Dec.
    2. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 2006. "Do inflation targeters outperform non-targeters?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Sep), pages 431-450.
    3. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 2003/223, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange rates; Thailand;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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