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Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: a layman's guide

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Abstract

Economists have traditionally been skeptical of the value of technical analysis, the use of past price behavior to guide trading decisions in asset markets. Instead, they have relied on the logic of the efficient markets hypothesis. Christopher J. Neely briefly explains the fundamentals of technical analysis and the efficient markets hypothesis as applied to the foreign exchange market, evaluates the profitability of simple trading rules, and reviews recent ideas that might justify extrapolative technical analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher J. Neely, 1997. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: a layman's guide," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1997:i:sep:p:23-38
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