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Monetary policy and financial market expectations: what did they know and when did they know it?

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Abstract

Interest rates sometimes seem to respond to Federal Reserve policy actions in unexpected ways--for example, falling when the Fed \\" tightens\\" monetary policy or rising when the Fed \\"eases\\" policy. In this article, Michael R. Pakko and David C. Wheelock attempt to demystify such responses. They show how trading in the federal funds futures market reveals public expectations of Federal Reserve actions, and how our knowledge of these expectations can help us interpret the behavior of interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael R. Pakko & David C. Wheelock, 1996. "Monetary policy and financial market expectations: what did they know and when did they know it?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 78(Jul), pages 19-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1996:i:jul:p:19-32:n:v.78no.5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John C. Robertson & Daniel L. Thornton, 1997. "Using federal funds futures rates to predict Federal Reserve actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 45-53.
    2. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Predicting monetary policy using federal funds future prices," Working Paper Series 85, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. O. David Gulley & Jahangir Sultan, 2011. "Economics, politics and the federal funds markets: does the Fed play politics?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(14), pages 1005-1019.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "United States: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/237, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.
    6. Sébastien Wälti, 2003. "Contagion and interdependence among Central European economies: the impact of common external shocks," IHEID Working Papers 02-2003, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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