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Policy Instability and the Risk-Return Trade-Off

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What is the impact of large swings in economic policy on the risk-return trade-off faced by investors? What is the impact of changes in policy regimes on investment strategies? In this paper we study the impact on returns of switches between periods of market-friendly economic policies and periods of populist policies. To quantify the impact of policy instability, we use data from Argentina—a country that has experienced frequent and very large regime changes—and find that the risk-return for individual assets and minimum variance portfolios are quite different across regimes. We then develop a dynamic model to understand optimal portfolios when investors are cognizant that regimes can change. We find that when portfolios are unrestricted, it is optimal for investors to take a large amount of risk. On the other hand, when portfolios are restricted to include only long positions, a real asset (real estate) dominates financial assets.

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  • Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Jose Martinez-Gutierrez, 2024. "Policy Instability and the Risk-Return Trade-Off," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 106(2), pages 106-128.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:97555
    DOI: 10.20955/r.106.106-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dorn91-1.
    2. Lixin Huang & Hong Liu, 2007. "Rational Inattention and Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1999-2040, August.
    3. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Introduction to "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America"," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic policy; policy instability; risk-return trade-off; investment strategies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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