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How Much Do Oil Prices Affect Inflation?

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Abstract

It is puzzling why large monthly or quarterly oil price changes predict very small changes in the CPI but daily oil prices predict large changes in breakeven inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher J. Neely, 2015. "How Much Do Oil Prices Affect Inflation?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 10.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedles:00037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
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    1. Biman Prasad & Paresh K. Narayan & Joel Abraham, 2023. "How Effective Are Price Regulator’S Price Control Measures?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(4), pages 563-570, November.
    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Ademuyiwa, Idris & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Revisiting the forecasting accuracy of Phillips curve: The role of oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 334-356.
    4. Nor Ermawati Hussain & Mohd Shahidan Shaari & Diana Nabila Chau Abdullah, 2018. "Effects of Retailing Selling Prices of Petrol and Diesel on Food Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 28-32.
    5. Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2018. "Inflation as a global phenomenon—Some implications for inflation modeling and forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-73.
    6. Serikbay Ydyrys & Malika Munasipova & Kanat Ydyrys & Mariyam Ydyrys & Lyazzat Mukhambetova & Guldana Temirbayeva, 2018. "Econometric Analysis of Effect of Oil Price Change, Trade Balance and Other Variables on Inflation," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 134-138.

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