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Nominal interest rate pegging under alternative expectations hypotheses

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  • Joseph E. Gagnon
  • Dale W. Henderson

Abstract

Nominal interest rate pegging leads to instability in an IS-LM model with a vertical long-run Phillips curve and backward-looking inflation expectations. However, it does not lead to instability in several large multicountry econometric models, primarily because these models have nonvertical long-run Phillips curves. Nominal interest rate pegging leads to price level and output indeterminacy in a model with staggered contracts and rational expectations. However, when a class of money supply rules with interest rate smoothing is introduced, and interest rate pegging is viewed as the limit of interest rate smoothing, the price level and output are determinate.
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Suggested Citation

  • Joseph E. Gagnon & Dale W. Henderson, 1990. "Nominal interest rate pegging under alternative expectations hypotheses," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 438-473.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgpr:y:1990:p:438-473
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McCallum, Bennett T., 1981. "Price level determinacy with an interest rate policy rule and rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 319-329.
    2. Benavie, Arthur & Froyen, Richard T, 1988. "Price Level Determinancy and Nominal Interest Rate Pegging," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 634-645, December.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    4. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    5. McCallum, Bennett T., 1986. "Some issues concerning interest rate pegging, price level determinacy, and the real bills doctrine," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 135-160, January.
    6. Reinhart, Vincent, 1990. "Interest rate smoothing and staggered contracting," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Dale W. Henderson & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1983. "The Information Content of the Interest Rate and Optimal Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(4), pages 545-566.
    8. Dotsey, Michael & King, Robert G., 1983. "Monetary instruments and policy rules in a rational expectations environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 357-382, September.
    9. Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-1385, September.
    10. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    12. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Henderson, Dale W. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 221-317, December.
    2. Stefan Laséen & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2011. "Anticipated Alternative policy Rate Paths in Plicy Simulations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 1-35, September.
    3. Stefan Laséen & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2009. "Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations," NBER Working Papers 14902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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