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Educational attainment, unemployment, and wage inflation

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  • Mary C. Daly
  • Osborne Jackson
  • Robert G. Valletta

Abstract

We investigate the impact of rising educational attainment on wage inflation and the equilibrium (non-inflationary) rate of unemployment. Rising educational attainment may reduce wage pressures by shifting the composition of the labor force towards groups with lower equilibrium unemployment rates, or it may increase wage pressures through increased reliance on groups whose wages are relatively responsive to changes in unemployment. A measure of aggregate unemployment adjusted for changes in the age and education structure of the labor force performs well in Phillips curve estimates of the wage inflation process but does not substantially improve the ability to forecast wages or materially alter the estimates of the equilibrium unemployment rate. We also estimate models of wage inflation that are disaggregated by educational attainment and find that college-educated workers face a sharper trade-off between labor market tightness and wage growth than do other groups. We find that forecasts of wage inflation derived from the disaggregated relationships perform better than those from aggregate wage equations.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary C. Daly & Osborne Jackson & Robert G. Valletta, 2007. "Educational attainment, unemployment, and wage inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 49-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:2007:p:49-61
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
    6. Jacob Mincer, 1993. "Studies In Human Capital," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 316.
    7. Robert J. Gordon, 1981. "Inflation, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 0708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Todd M. Gabe & Richard Florida, 2013. "Effects of the Housing Boom and Bust on U.S. Metro Employment," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 391-414, September.
    2. Sandeep Mazumder, 2014. "The Impact of Educational Attainment and Gender on the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 651-662.
    3. Todd Gabe & Richard Florida & Charlotta Mellander, 2012. "The Creative Class and the crisis," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 6(1), pages 37-53.
    4. Falakahla, Lwazi, 2018. "The Causality Between Youth Unemployment, Education Attainment and Labour Force Participation: Evidence from South Africa," MPRA Paper 92562, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Education; Wages;

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