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Residential investment over the real estate cycle

Author

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  • John Krainer

Abstract

Much attention recently has been given to the possibility of a slowdown in the U.S. residential real estate market. While real residential investment has continued to grow and existing house prices have held up through the first quarter of 2006, analysts have pointed to other signs of slowing. Two commonly cited indicators are an apparent slowing of sales of new and existing homes and a buildup of inventories of new homes in many markets. In this Economic Letter, I characterize past episodes of residential investment downturns and evaluate how specific housing market variables, such as sales volumes and inventories, perform as predictors of downturns.

Suggested Citation

  • John Krainer, 2006. "Residential investment over the real estate cycle," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun30.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2006:i:jun30:n:2006-15
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2006/el2006-15.pdf
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2006/el2006-15.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Goodness C. Aye & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Forecasting US real private residential fixed investment using a large number of predictors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1557-1580, December.
    2. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Alain Kabundi & Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata, 2013. "Important Channels of Transmission Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa," Working Papers 375, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    4. Naik, Prasad A., 2015. "Marketing Dynamics: A Primer on Estimation and Control," Foundations and Trends(R) in Marketing, now publishers, vol. 9(3), pages 175-266, December.

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