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Future Output Loss from COVID-Induced School Closures

Author

Listed:
  • John G. Fernald
  • Huiyu Li
  • Mitchell Ochse

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive disruptions to the U.S. educational system. Research on school closures—particularly combined with parental income loss—implies that children are likely to attain lower levels of lifetime education compared with pre-pandemic trends. Projections show learning disruptions could lower the level of annual economic output ¼ percentage point on average over the next 70 years. The effect is small the first 5–10 years then peaks at a loss of ½ percentage point in about 25 years, when the children reach prime working age.

Suggested Citation

  • John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li & Mitchell Ochse, 2021. "Future Output Loss from COVID-Induced School Closures," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(04), pages 01-05, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:89913
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    Cited by:

    1. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2022. "The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2022-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Nabil Afodjo & Christopher Cotton & Maggie Jones, 2023. "Student Experiences with COVID-19 in Canada," Working Paper 1511, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    3. Janice C. dup Eberly & John dup Fernald, 2022. "Jackson Hole 2022 - Reassessing Economic Constraints: Potential Output (The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output)," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.

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