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The recovery’s final frontier?

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The U.S. economy is looking quite good. Growth is on a solid trajectory, and the FOMC?s maximum employment goal is in sight. Risks from abroad are unlikely to overturn strong U.S. fundamentals. Still, the exact timing of an initial interest rate increase will depend on convincing evidence that inflation is heading back toward target. The following is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Los Angeles on July 8.

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  • John C. Williams, 2015. "The recovery’s final frontier?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00063
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    1. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2014. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 51-93, October.
    2. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2015. "Why is wage growth so slow?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
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    6. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Diebold, Francis X. & Nalewaik, Jeremy & Schorfheide, Frank & Song, Dongho, 2016. "Improving GDP measurement: A measurement-error perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 384-397.
    7. Milton Friedman, 1961. "The Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(5), pages 447-447.
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    9. Charles E. Gilbert & Norman J. Morin & Andrew D. Paciorek & Claudia R. Sahm, 2015. "Residual Seasonality in GDP," FEDS Notes 2015-05-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Tomaz Cajner & Dennis Mawhirter & Christopher J. Nekarda & David Ratner, 2014. "Why is Involuntary Part-Time Work Elevated?," FEDS Notes 2014-04-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. John C. Williams, 2015. "Looking forward, forward looking: the path for monetary policy," Speech 138, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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