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Monetary policy prospects

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  • Evan F. Koenig

Abstract

In this article Evan Koenig looks at measures of the Federal Reserves policy stance and discusses why short-term interest rates will almost certainly have to increase at some point. The article also examines the historical relationship between Federal Reserve policy, inflation and resource slack for insights on future rate changes. Koenig concludes that a wide range of policy outcomes are plausible over the next two years, depending on the strength of the recovery, the economys growth potential, and the sustainable unemployment ratevariables that economists cant, unfortunately, estimate with much confidence.>
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Suggested Citation

  • Evan F. Koenig, 2004. "Monetary policy prospects," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue May, pages 1,11-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddse:y:2004:i:may:p:111-16:n:3
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    File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/swe/2004/swe0403b.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2017. "The Yellen rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 59-71.
    2. Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP59, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    3. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. George A. Kahn, 2012. "Estimated rules for monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q IV).
    5. Adriana Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2008. "The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jun.
    6. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2021. "Policy Rules and Economic Performance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Fernandez, Adriana Z. & Koenig, Evan F. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2010. "Can alternative Taylor-rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 733-757, November.

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