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Evaluating the Eleventh District's Beige Book

Author

Listed:
  • Nathan S. Balke
  • Mine K. Yücel

Abstract

In this study, Nathan Balke and Mine Yucel ask whether the Eleventh Federal Reserve District's Beige Book description contains timely information about economic activity within the District. They examine whether the Beige Book description tracks current Texas real gross state product (GSP) growth and current Texas employment growth. They also study whether the Beige Book has information about growth not present in other regional indicators that would have been available to analysts at the time of the Beige Book's release. They find that both the Beige Book summary and the average across sectors reflect Texas GSP and employment growth very well. These two measures of the Beige Book also have predictive content for one quarter ahead GSP growth. Balke and Yucel also find that the Eleventh District's Beige Book has information content for Texas economic activity over and above other state economic indicators such as Texas employment growth, personal income, or sectoral employment growth. Because the Beige Book is released at least one month earlier than employment data and at least two years before GSP data, its timeliness makes it a good tool for current regional economic analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan S. Balke & Mine K. Yücel, 2000. "Evaluating the Eleventh District's Beige Book," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 2-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:2000:i:qiv:p:2-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balke, Nathan S & Petersen, D'Ann, 2002. "How Well Does the Beige Book Reflect Economic Activity? Evaluating Qualitative Information Quantitatively," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 114-136, February.
    2. David Fettig & Arthur J. Rolnick & David E. Runkle, 1999. "The Federal Reserve's Beige Book: A better mirror than crystal ball," The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13(Mar), pages 10-13,28-32.
    3. Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1995. "A new quarterly output measure for Texas," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 16-23.
    4. Alan S. Blinder, 1997. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: What Central Bankers Could Learn from Academics--And Vice Versa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 3-19, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michelle T. Armesto & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger, 2007. "Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach," Working Papers 2007-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Donna K. Ginther & Madeline Zavodny, 2001. "The Beige Book: Timely information on the regional economy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q3), pages 19-29.
    3. Kathryn Lundquist & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession," Working Papers 2011-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    4. Madeline Zavodny & Donna K. Ginther, 2005. "Does the Beige Book Move Financial Markets?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(1), pages 138-151, July.

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