IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedcec/y2006iapr15.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does the yield curve signal recession?

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph G. Haubrich

Abstract

Experience has taught economic forecasters to expect a recession when the yield on short-term Treasury securities rises above the yield on longer-term securities - a situation known as a yield-curve inversion. But some economists suspect the yield curve might not be as reliable a predictor of output growth as it used to be.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph G. Haubrich, 2006. "Does the yield curve signal recession?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2006:i:apr15
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-20060415
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-20060415
    File Function: Persistent Link
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/publications/economic-commentary/2006/ec-20060415-does-the-yield-curve-signal-recession-pdf.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26509/frbc-ec-20060415?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2022. "Do Recessions Occur Concurrently Across Countries? A Multinomial Logistic Approach," Working Papers 2022:11, Örebro University, School of Business.
    2. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    3. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Working Paper Series 1435, European Central Bank.
    4. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.
    5. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    6. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Amanda C. Janosko & Dieter Gramlich & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "Supervising System Stress in Multiple Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2006:i:apr15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.