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Expected inflation and TIPS

Author

Listed:
  • Charles T. Carlstrom
  • Timothy S. Fuerst

Abstract

When inflation-indexed Treasury securities were first introduced, economists hoped that they could be used to measure expected inflation easily. The only difference between securities that were indexed to inflation and those that were not was thought to be the extra compensation regular securities had to pay for what the market thought inflation would be. By now it is pretty clear that inflation-indexed Treasuries differ from regular securities in other ways that show up in the yields. This Commentary suggests what these are and discusses a method of correcting for them.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2004. "Expected inflation and TIPS," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Nov.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2004:i:nov
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Söderlind, 2011. "Inflation Risk Premia and Survey Evidence on Macroeconomic Uncertainty," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(2), pages 113-133, June.
    2. De Graeve, Ferre & Emiris, Marina & Wouters, Raf, 2009. "A structural decomposition of the US yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 545-559, May.
    3. Thorsten Lehnert & Aleksandar Andonov & Florian Bardong, 2009. "TIPS, Inflation Expectations and the Financial Crisis," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-09, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    4. Zeng, Zheng, 2013. "New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 125-139.
    5. ARANHA, Marcel Z. & MOURA, Marcelo L., 2008. "The impact of monetary policy on the yield curve in the Brazilian economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_157, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    6. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España.
    7. Sharon Kozicki & Gordon H. Sellon, 2005. "Longer-term perspectives on the yield curve and monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-33.

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