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Forecasting turning points with leading indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Gerald H. Anderson
  • John J. Erceg

Abstract

An examination of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators and its record as a forecasting tool. The authors conclude that while the index can provide useful information about business peaks and troughs, its value is limited by a tendency to give false signals, and its worth greatly increases when used in combination with other indexes.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald H. Anderson & John J. Erceg, 1989. "Forecasting turning points with leading indicators," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:1989:i:oct1
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    Cited by:

    1. Hugo Nel*, 1996. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Economic Activity in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 64(3), pages 151-157, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic indicators; Forecasting;

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