IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedbne/y1993inovp18-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Commodity prices, the term structure of interest rates, and exchange rates: useful indicators for monetary policy?

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer

Abstract

Effective conduct of monetary policy requires accurate and timely indications of the current and future course of the ultimate targets of monetary policy. It is widely agreed that the monetary aggregates no longer provide reliable signals of inflation or of real activity. It is less widely agreed which variable or variables should replace the aggregates, or how they would be used in conducting monetary policy. This article considers whether the slope of the term structure of interest rates, commodity prices, and the exchange rate could be suitable replacements for the aggregates. The author finds that on both theoretical and empirical grounds, the proposed indicators would be neither straightforward nor reliable guides to monetary policy. On theoretical grounds, the indicators would be difficult to interpret because the sign and magnitude of their correlations with ultimate targets depend critically upon the monetary policy regime in effect. Empirically, the study finds that no single indicator bears a stable and statistically reliable relationship to the current or future course of a monetary policy target.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1993. "Commodity prices, the term structure of interest rates, and exchange rates: useful indicators for monetary policy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 18-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1993:i:nov:p:18-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/neer/neer1993/neer693b.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1993. "What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 32-44.
    3. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    5. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1992. "Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-336, April.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
    7. Manuel H. Johnson, 1988. "Current Perspectives on Monetary Policy," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 8(2), pages 253-260, Fall.
    8. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rossiter, R. D., 1995. "Monetary policy indicators after deregulation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 207-223.
    2. Galindo, Luis M., 1995. "La hipótesis de expectativas en el mercado de Cetes en México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 10(1), pages 67-88.
    3. Sauer, Christine & Scheide, Joachim, 1995. "Money, interest rate spreads, and economic activity," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1664, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Adusei Jumah, 2001. "The effects of dollar-sterling exchange rate volatility on futures markets for coffee and cocoa," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 28(3), pages 307-328, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rossiter, R. D., 1995. "Monetary policy indicators after deregulation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 207-223.
    2. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Efficient Monetary Policy Design near Price Stability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 327-365, December.
    3. Frauke Dobnik, 2013. "Long-run money demand in OECD countries: what role do common factors play?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 89-113, August.
    4. Grégory Levieuge, 2005. "Politique monétaire et prix d'actifs," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 93(2), pages 317-355.
    5. Chee Loong, Lee & Chun Hao, Laiu & Nur Hidayah, Ramli & Nur Sabrina, Mohd Palel, 2018. "Dynamic Interactions in Macroeconomic Activities," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1651-1672.
    6. Wang, Ling, 2022. "The dynamics of money supply determination under asset purchase programs: A market-based versus a bank-based financial system," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Peter N. Ireland, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism," Working Papers 06-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    8. repec:fip:fedkrw:15-06 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mr. Evan C Tanner, 2002. "Exchange Market Pressure, Currency Crises, and Monetary Policy: Additional Evidence From Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2002/014, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2014. "The Barnett critique after three decades: A New Keynesian analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 5-21.
    11. Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial-asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Francisco Rosende & Luis Oscar Herrera, 1991. "Teoría y Política Monetaria: Elementos para el Análisis," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 28(83), pages 55-94.
    13. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    14. Barrdear, John & Kumhof, Michael, 2022. "The macroeconomics of central bank digital currencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    15. Andrew Lee Smith, 2015. "When does the cost channel pose a challenge to inflation targeting central banks?," Research Working Paper RWP 15-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    16. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Magginas, Nicholas S., 2005. "Changes in financial structure and asset price substitutability: A test of the bank lending channel," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 879-904, September.
    17. Enzo Weber & Jürgen Wolters, 2013. "Risk and Policy Shocks on the US Term Structure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 101-119, February.
    18. Milne, Alistair & Wood, Geoffrey, 2009. "The bank lending channel reconsidered," Research Discussion Papers 2/2009, Bank of Finland.
    19. Sambulo Malumisa, 2015. "Structural Breaks, Stability and Demand for Money in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 7(5), pages 79-90.
    20. Piti Disyatat, 2008. "Monetary policy implementation: Misconceptions and their consequences," BIS Working Papers 269, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Prof. Neil D. Karunaratne, 2000. "Inflation Targeting Macroeconomic Distortions and the Policy Reaction Function," Discussion Papers Series 269, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1993:i:nov:p:18-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Spozio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbbous.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.