IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fep/journl/v6y1993i2p108-122.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Some distributional properties of monthly stock returns in Sweden 1919-1990

Author

Listed:
  • Per Frennberg

    (Department of Economics, University of Lund, Sweden)

  • Björn Hansson

    (Department of Economics, University of Lund, Sweden)

Abstract

This paper examines the distributional properties of a newly constructed dataset oj monthly returns on the Swedish stock market. The standard assumptions that stock returns are log-normally distributed, serially independent, non-seasonal and homoscedastic are all rejected by data. Swedish stock returns are more likely to belong to a peaked and fat-tailed distribution, with positive first order autocorrelation, strong seasonality and changing volatility over time. These results are well in line with what has been reported from other national stock markets. Our major conclusion is that, given the failure of data to meet the usual distributional assumptions in finance, it may be worthwhile to pay more attention to modeling both the return generating process and the volatility generating process for the market index, instead of simply assuming a strict random walk model.

Suggested Citation

  • Per Frennberg & Björn Hansson, 1993. "Some distributional properties of monthly stock returns in Sweden 1919-1990," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 108-122, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:fep:journl:v:6:y:1993:i:2:p:108-122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://taloustieteellinenyhdistys.fi/images/stories/fep/f1993_2e.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    2. Officer, R R, 1973. "The Variability of the Market Factor of the New York Stock Exchange," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(3), pages 434-453, July.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    4. Akgiray, Vedat, 1989. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 55-80, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Waldenström, Daniel, 2014. "Swedish Stock and Bond Returns, 1856–2012," Working Paper Series 1027, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cornelis A. Los, 2005. "Measurement of Financial Risk Persistence," Finance 0502013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kim-Leng Goh & Kim-Lian Kok, 2006. "Beating the Random Walk: Intraday Seasonality and Volatility in a Developing Stock Market," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 5(1), pages 41-59, April.
    3. Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
    4. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    5. Campbell, John Y & Kim, Sangjoon & Lettau, Martin, 1998. "Dispersion and Volatility in Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Dongweí Su, 2003. "Risk, Return and Regulation in Chinese Stock Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Chinese Stock Markets A Research Handbook, chapter 3, pages 75-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Mean and variance causality between the Cyprus Stock Exchange and major equity markets," Working Papers 0501, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    8. Bauer, Rob M M J & Nieuwland, Frederick G M C & Verschoor, Willem F C, 1994. "German Stock Market Dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 397-418.
    9. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January.
    10. Estrada, Javier, 1995. "Empirical evidence on the impact of European insider trading regulations," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 7068, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    11. Frank J. Fabozzi & Radu Tunaru & Tony Wu, 2004. "Modeling Volatility for the Chinese Equity Markets," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 5(1), pages 79-92, May.
    12. Holger Claessen & Stefan Mittnik, 2002. "Forecasting stock market volatility and the informational efficiency of the DAX-index options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 302-321.
    13. Stéphane Yen & Ming-Hsiang Chen, 2010. "Open interest, volume, and volatility: evidence from Taiwan futures markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 113-141, April.
    14. Li, Qi & Yang, Jian & Hsiao, Cheng & Chang, Young-Jae, 2005. "The relationship between stock returns and volatility in international stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 650-665, December.
    15. Abdmoulah, Walid, 2010. "Testing the evolving efficiency of Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-34, January.
    16. G. William Schwert, 1989. "Indexes of United States Stock Prices From 1802 to 1987," NBER Working Papers 2985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
    18. Pandey, Ajay, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Volatility in Indian Capital Markets," IIMA Working Papers WP2003-08-03, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    19. Angelidis, Timotheos & Benos, Alexandros & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2004. "The Use of GARCH Models in VaR Estimation," MPRA Paper 96332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Brailsford, Timothy J. & Faff, Robert W., 1996. "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 419-438, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fep:journl:v:6:y:1993:i:2:p:108-122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Secretary The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Editorial Secretary to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/talouea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.