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Systemic Sovereign Risk and Asset Prices: Evidence from the CDS Market, Stressed European Economies and Nonlinear Causality Tests

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Blanco-Oliver

    (University of Seville, Spain)

  • Ana Irimia-Dieguez

    (University of Seville, Spain)

  • María Oliver-Alfonso

    (University of Seville, Spain)

  • Nicholas Wilson

    (Leeds University Business School, UK)

Abstract

The use of non-parametric methodologies, the introduction of non-financial variables, and the development of models geared towards the homogeneous characteristics of corporate sub-populations have recently experienced a surge of interest in the bankruptcy literature. However, no research on default prediction has yet focused on micro-entities (MEs), despite such firms’ importance in the global economy. This paper builds the first bankruptcy model especially designed for MEs by using a wide set of accounts from 1999 to 2008 and applying artificial neural networks (ANNs). Our findings show that ANNs outperform the traditional logistic regression (LR) models. In addition, we also report that, thanks to the introduction of non-financial predictors related to age, the delay in filing accounts, legal action by creditors to recover unpaid debts, and the ownership features of the company, the improvement with respect to the use of solely financial information is 3.6%, which is even higher than the improvement that involves the use of the best ANN (2.6%).

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Blanco-Oliver & Ana Irimia-Dieguez & María Oliver-Alfonso & Nicholas Wilson, 2015. "Systemic Sovereign Risk and Asset Prices: Evidence from the CDS Market, Stressed European Economies and Nonlinear Causality Tests," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 144-166, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:2:p:144-166
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bankruptcy models; micro-entities; credit risk; non-financial information; artificial neural network; logistic regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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