Climate Change and Agriculture: Current and Future Trends, and Implications for India

Agriculture is vulnerable to the current state of climate variability as well as to projected changes in climate because of anthropogenic global warming. Models of crop production, considered together with global climate models, indicate that global warming will increase the exposure of major crops to temperature stress, leading ultimately to lower yields. Such decreases in yields vary significantly across the globe (and there remain significant uncertainties about their magnitude). Various studies also indicate that climate variability alone has the potential to decrease yields to an extent comparable to or greater than the decrease in yields expected due to rising mean temperatures. Following a survey of these results at the global level, this paper explores some aspects of the impact of climate variability and projected changes in the mean values of temperature and precipitation at the regional level for India. There are significant uncertainties in predicting changes in rainfall patterns for India, particularly because of difficulties in understanding and predicting monsoon behaviour. More robust results are available regarding future rises in temperature expected in the Indian subcontinent. While the dependence of Indian agriculture on rainfall is well-known, the significance of increased temperature variability must also now be considered. The paper emphasises the importance of distinguishing between current climate variability and future changes in climate with respect to the mean and the variance of climate variables, especially in understanding the socio-economic impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. Using village-level data on agricultural production, yield, and incomes from the Project on Agrarian Relations in India (PARI), it argues that conflating current climate variability and future climate change obscures the fact that inequality and oppression are the key to why poor and marginal farmers suffer the impact of climate variability today, even when climate change does not yet have a serious negative impact on Indian agriculture. At the same time, understanding the differentiated impact of climate variability across socio-economic categories of producers, agro-climatic zones, and crops in the current context can provide significant insights into climate adaptation in a future of global warming. A just and equitable policy for dealing with the impact of climate change on IndiaÕs development must therefore pay as much attention to climate adaptation, especially with reference to agricultural production, as it does to climate change mitigation.