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Conditional Relationship Between Beta and Return in the US Stock Market

Author

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  • Bing XIAO

    (Université d’Auvergne, France)

Abstract

According to the CAPM, risk is measured by the beta, and the relation between required expected return and beta is linear. This paper examines the conditional relationship between beta and return in the US stock market. The conditional covariances and variances used to estimate beta are modeled as an ARCH process. The beta return relationship is tested upon the sign of the excess market return. The implication of the sign of the excess market return follows Morelli (2011). This study shows the importance of recognizing the sign of the excess market return when testing the beta-return relationship. The approach also allows us to distinguish the size effect and the effect of economic cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Bing XIAO, 2016. "Conditional Relationship Between Beta and Return in the US Stock Market," Expert Journal of Business and Management, Sprint Investify, vol. 4(1), pages 46-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:exp:bsness:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:46-55
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    2. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. "Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Turan G. Bali & Robert F. Engle & Yi Tang, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Beta Is Alive and Well in the Cross Section of Daily Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3760-3779, November.
    6. Bing Xiao, 2016. "Conditional Relationship Between Beta and Return in the US Stock Market," Post-Print hal-02541117, HAL.
    7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad Faisol & Sulaeman Rahman Nidar & Aldrin Herwany, 2022. "The Analysis of Risk and Return Using Sharia Compliance Assets Pricing Model with Profit-Sharing Approach (Mudharabah) in Energy Sector Company in Indonesia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional beta; Market risk premium; ARCH models; US stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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