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Uso de la sociofísica para realizar predicciones electorales utilizando algoritmos genéticos

Author

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  • Mario H. Ramírez Díaz
  • Eduardo Chávez Lima

Abstract

La sociofísica es una novedosa rama interdisciplinaria de la física que aboga por el uso de métodos y conceptos de la física de sistemas complejos para el estudio de interacciones colectivas en sociedades y de los fenómenos sociales como propiedades emergentes de un conjunto de individuos. En este trabajo se muestran los resultados de utilizar el enfoque sociofísico para la predicción de procesos electorales, siguiendo los trabajos realizados por Serge Galam. Se realizan correcciones a la formula mágica propuesta por Galam, la cual presenta errores. Por otro lado, se desarrolló un sistema computacional basado en algoritmos genéticos para implementar la ecuación obtenida a partir de las correcciones de la formula mágica. Finalmente, se prueba el sistema con datos de elecciones delegacionales reales en el Distrito Federal de México de 2006 y 2009 para probar su eficiencia y se realiza una predicción para las elecciones del año 2012.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario H. Ramírez Díaz & Eduardo Chávez Lima, 2014. "Uso de la sociofísica para realizar predicciones electorales utilizando algoritmos genéticos," Tecsistecatl, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:erv:tecsis:y:2014:i:16:5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Galam, Serge, 2000. "Real space renormalization group and totalitarian paradox of majority rule voting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 66-76.
    2. Serge Galam, 2008. "Sociophysics: A Review Of Galam Models," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(03), pages 409-440.
    3. Galam, Serge, 1999. "Application of statistical physics to politics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 132-139.
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