The Forecasting of Dangerous Goods Transport by Railin Poland in Terms of Environmental Security

Purpose: The research problem discussed in the article concerns the transport of dangerous goods by rail in Poland and its forecasting for the future through the obtained evaluation from the analysis of retrospective data. The purpose of the study was outlined for the adopted research problem. The aim of the study is to forecast the number of dangerous goods transported by rail in Poland for the years 2020-2023. Project/Methodology/Approach: Theoretical research methods for the analysis of the literature were used in the study which allowed to solve the adopted research problem. The literature on the transport of dangerous goods by rail in Poland was reviewed. The method of comparison was also used which made it possible to rank companies in terms of their participation in the transport of dangerous goods by rail in Poland. The method of the forecasting of dangerous goods transport by rail for the years 2020-2023 was used. The obtained forecasts were analyzed and evaluated through the forecast remainder. Results: The forecast for the transport of dangerous goods by rail in Poland for 2020 is 26 151 tons, for 2021 it is 27 899 tons, for 2022 it is 28 005 tons and for 2023 it is 28 752 tons. The forecast was considered very good as the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the obtained forecast was 3,50%. Practical implications: On the basis of the evaluation of historical data through the detection of regularities from the past, such as an increasing trend, a model to forecast for the future can be selected. Originality: The grouping of primary data allowed for their comparison on categorized bar and line charts to compare them dynamically and, thus, highlight their similarities and differences.