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Combined Modeling of Projected Evaluation of the Regional Socio-economic Development

Author

Listed:
  • V.V. Davnis
  • V.I. Tinyakova
  • A.O. Blinov
  • Yu.V. Volodin

Abstract

Purpose: The article reveals the authors’ approach to forecast the socio-economic development of a region. Design/Methodology/Approach: The framework of this approach envisages the construction of three interrelated models: a matrix predictor, an autoregressive model, and a binary choice logit model. This approach ensures an adequate reproduction of the systemic dynamics of indicators of regional socio-economic development. Findings: Authors’ models require their implementation in the state management function of the regional economy and testing with specific examples illustrating opportunities of multidimensional economic and mathematical modeling of difficult socio-economic phenomena and processes. Practical implications: Authors’ development represents a conceptual foundation for the development of digital regional socio-economic monitoring systems providing an opportunity for a qualitative increase in the reliability and relevance of prognostic parameters. Originality/Value: The contribution of the article is assessment of an opportunity to model the dynamics of multidimensional processes with the perspective to build a combined forecast model of the socio-economic development of the region, providing for the implementation of multivariate forecast calculations.

Suggested Citation

  • V.V. Davnis & V.I. Tinyakova & A.O. Blinov & Yu.V. Volodin, 2019. "Combined Modeling of Projected Evaluation of the Regional Socio-economic Development," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(Special 1), pages 348-354.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:ijebaa:v:vii:y:2019:i:special1:p:348-354
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gourieroux,Christian, 2000. "Econometrics of Qualitative Dependent Variables," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589857.
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    Cited by:

    1. Loi, Nguyen Thi Ngoc, 2022. "Digital Agriculture in Viet Nam: Conditions and Prospect of Development," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 14(3), September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast; region; socio-economic development; combined modeling; discrete-continuous regression matrix model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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