IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/erc/cypepr/v10y2016i1p87-104.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Output Gap in Cyprus and EU-28

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandros Polycarpou

    (Economics Research Centre, University of Cyprus)

Abstract

Output gap estimates are used in the calculation of structural fiscal balance indicators that are subsequently employed for the surveillance of economic growth and stability. The European Commission has adopted the production function approach for the estimation of output gap in the EU member states. This paper reviews the estimates and forecast for the output gap over the period 1998 to 2017 for Cyprus, which is obtained using the EU methodology, and compare them with the ones for EU-28. It also examines the sensitivity of the output gap estimates to the assumptions made by the EU for the wage share and for the construction of the capacity utilisation business survey (CUBS) indicator.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandros Polycarpou, 2016. "The Output Gap in Cyprus and EU-28," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 10(1), pages 87-104, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:erc:cypepr:v:10:y:2016:i:1:p:87-104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ucy.ac.cy/erc/documents/Polycarpou_87-104.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Fabrice Orlandi & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi & Anna Thum-Thysen & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2014. "The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 535, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Dupasquier, Chantal & Guay, Alain & St-Amant, Pierre, 1999. "A Survey of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 577-595, July.
    3. Douglas, Paul H, 1976. "The Cobb-Douglas Production Function Once Again: Its History, Its Testing, and Some New Empirical Values," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 903-915, October.
    4. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
    5. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Staff Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alessandro Cianci, 2016. "Disoccupazione strutturale in Italia e regole europee di bilancio," a/ Working Papers Series 1601, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    2. S. Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 4, pages 31-60.
    3. Lorenzo Burlon & Paolo D'Imperio, 2019. "The euro-area output gap through the lens of a DSGE model," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 477, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. repec:rim:rimwps:34-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    6. Mellár, Tamás & Németh, Kristóf, 2018. "A kibocsátási rés becslése többváltozós állapottérmodellekben. Szuperhiszterézis és további empirikus eredmények [Estimating output gap in multivariate state space models. Super-hysteresis and furt," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 557-591.
    7. Hyeon-Seung Huh & David Kim, 2014. "Do SVAR Models Justify Discarding the Technology-Shock-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(288), pages 98-118, March.
    8. Gradzewicz, Michal & Kolasa, Marcin, 2004. "Estimating the output gap in the Polish economy: the VECM approach," MPRA Paper 28227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Guido Bulligan & Lorenzo Burlon & Davide Delle Monache & Andrea Silvestrini, 2019. "Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(3), pages 541-569, September.
    10. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2015. "Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 20824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ahsan ul Haq Satti & Wasim Shahid Malik, 2017. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 193-219.
    12. Simon, András & Darvas, Zsolt, 2002. "A financiálisan fenntartható kibocsátás becslése a gazdaság nyitottságának felhasználásával [Estimating sustainable output from the openness of the economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 361-376.
    13. Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Schmidt, Torsten & Weyerstraß, Klaus, 2017. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2022: Hohe Kapazitätsauslastung birgt Stabilitätsrisiken," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 68(4), pages 39-53.
    14. Hjelm, Göran & Jönsson, Kristian, 2010. "In Search of a Method for Measuring the Output Gap of the Swedish Economy," Working Papers 115, National Institute of Economic Research.
    15. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
    16. Gilles Mourre & Aurélien Poissonnier, 2019. "What Drives the Responsiveness of the Budget Balance to the Business Cycle in EU Countries?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 54(4), pages 237-249, July.
    17. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 373-393, December.
    18. Angelica E. Njuguna & Stephen N. Karingi & Mwangi S. Kimenyi, 2005. "Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya," Working papers 2005-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    19. Zsolt Darvas & Gábor Vadas, 2003. "Univariate Potential Output Estimations for Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2003/8, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    20. Martha Misas A. & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2000. "Crecimiento y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia en el siglo XX: El Aporte de un VAR Estructural," Borradores de Economia 2229, Banco de la Republica.
    21. Martha Misas & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2000. "Crecimiento y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia en el Siglo XX: El aporte de un VAR Estructural," Borradores de Economia 155, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erc:cypepr:v:10:y:2016:i:1:p:87-104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vasiliki Bozani (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erucycy.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.