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COVID-19 fear index: does it matter for stock market returns?

Author

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  • Sowmya Subramaniam
  • Madhumita Chakraborty

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to capture the investors' mood related to the COVID-19 pandemic and analyze its impact on the stock market returns. Design/methodology/approach - To capture the investor mood related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the authors construct a unique COVID-19 fear index based on the Search Volume Index (SVI) from Google Trends (http://www.Google.com/trends/) of the search terms related to COVID-19 words and phrases as revealed by Google and Internet dictionaries. The COVID-19 fear index was used to investigate its impact on the stock market returns. Findings - The study finds a strong negative association between COVID-19 fear and stock returns. Unlike other studies, the relationship is persistent for a significant period. This relationship is not found to reverse in the following days. The results also highlight that COVID-19 fear strongly impacts the stock market. The sentiment persists for a significant period and is not reversed soon, unlike the regular times in earlier studies. Originality/value - The study is among the very few studies that constructed COVID-19 fear index using several Google search terms and captured its impact on the stock market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Sowmya Subramaniam & Madhumita Chakraborty, 2021. "COVID-19 fear index: does it matter for stock market returns?," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(1), pages 40-50, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:rbfpps:rbf-08-2020-0215
    DOI: 10.1108/RBF-08-2020-0215
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carlini, Federico & Farina, Vincenzo & Gufler, Ivan & Previtali, Daniele, 2024. "Do stress and overstatement in the news affect the stock market? Evidence from COVID-19 news in The Wall Street Journal," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Mirza Sikalo & Almira Arnaut-Berilo & Azra Zaimovic, 2022. "Efficient Asset Allocation: Application of Game Theory-Based Model for Superior Performance," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty, investor sentiment, and global equity markets: Evidence from the time-frequency co-movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Ballis, Antonis & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Constructing a positive sentiment index for COVID-19: Evidence from G20 stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Blajer-Gołębiewska, Anna & Honecker, Lukas & Nowak, Sabina, 2024. "Investor sentiment response to COVID-19 outbreak-related news: A sectoral analysis of US firms," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Steven Buigut and Burcu Kapar, 2022. "Do COVID-19 Incidence and Government Intervention Influence Media Indices?," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 79-100.
    7. Kunal Saha & Vinodh Madhavan & G. R. Chandrashekhar, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 on ETF and index efficiency: evidence from an entropy-based analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(2), pages 347-359, April.
    8. Riahi, Rabeb & Bennajma, Amel & Jahmane, Abderrahmane & Hammami, Helmi, 2024. "Investing in cryptocurrency before and during the COVID-19 crisis: Hedge, diversifier or safe haven?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    9. Kerry Liu, 2023. "America's decoupling from China: A perspective from stock markets," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 32-52, February.
    10. Goodell, John W. & Kumar, Satish & Li, Xiao & Pattnaik, Debidutta & Sharma, Anuj, 2022. "Foundations and research clusters in investor attention: Evidence from bibliometric and topic modelling analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 511-529.

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