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Central bank digital currency, economic growth and inflation

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  • Peterson K. Ozili

Abstract

Purpose - This study aims to investigate the effect of CBDC issuance on economic growth rate and inflation rate in Nigeria. We are interested in determining whether the rate of economic growth and inflation changed significantly after the issuance of a non-interest bearing CBDC in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach - Two-stage least squares regression and granger causality test were used to analyze the data. Findings - Inflation significantly increased in the CBDC period, implying that CBDC issuance did not decrease the rate of inflation in Nigeria. Economic growth rate significantly increased in the CBDC period, implying that CBDC issuance improved economic growth in Nigeria. The financial sector, agricultural sector and manufacturing sector witnessed a much stronger contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) after CBDC issuance. There is one-way granger causality between CBDC issuance and monthly inflation, implying that CBDC issuance causes a significant change in monthly inflation in Nigeria. The implication of the result is that the non-interest bearing eNaira CBDC is not able to solve the twin economic problem of “controlling inflation which stifles economic growth” and “stimulating economic growth which leads to more inflation.” Policy makers should therefore use the eNaira CBDC alongside other monetary policy tools at their disposal to control inflation while stimulating growth in the economy. Originality/value - There are no empirical studies on the effect of CBDC issuance on economic growth or inflation using real-world data. We add to the monetary economics literature by analyzing the effect of CBDC issuance on economic growth and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Peterson K. Ozili, 2024. "Central bank digital currency, economic growth and inflation," Journal of Money and Business, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(1), pages 73-90, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jmbpps:jmb-08-2023-0038
    DOI: 10.1108/JMB-08-2023-0038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Cukierman, Alex, 2019. "Welfare and Political Economy Aspects of a Central Bank Digital Currency," CEPR Discussion Papers 13728, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Chen, Hongyi & Siklos, Pierre L., 2022. "Central bank digital currency: A review and some macro-financial implications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
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    6. Ulrich Clemens & Guillaume Cousin & Jean-Baptiste Feller & Daniel Monteiro & Matteo Salto, 2021. "The economic consequences of central bank digital currencies," Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission, vol. 20(3), pages 37-48, December.
    7. Cyril Monnet & Hyun Song Shin & Jon Frost & Leonardo Gambacorta & Raphael Auer & Tara Rice, 2022. "Central Bank Digital Currencies: Motives, Economic Implications, and the Research Frontier," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 697-721, August.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank digital currency; CBDC; Inflation; Economic growth; Nigeria; E31; E58; O47; O55;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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