IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/jfeppp/jfep-03-2017-0020.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do financial crises discipline future credit growth?

Author

Listed:
  • Puspa Amri
  • Eric M.P. Chiu
  • Greg Richey
  • Thomas D. Willett

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to test whether financial crises themselves provide some degree ofex postdiscipline. In other words, is there learning from the mistakes associated with crises? The authors test this hypothesis on credit growth, a frequent contributor to banking crises. Design/methodology/approach - The study uses statistical tests (comparison of means) on a sample of 72 banking crises, the onset of which occurred between 1980 and 2008. Tests for significance of the difference are conducted using Kolmogorov–Smirnov equality in distribution tests. Findings - The results show that real credit growth fell substantially (relative to average) by about 8 per cent points from pre- to post-crisis periods, and that average banking regulation and supervision strengthens after a crisis. Originality/value - This paper provides empirical support for the proposition that while financial markets may fail to give sufficient warning signals before a financial crisis, they may discipline governments to undertake reforms in the aftermath of a crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Puspa Amri & Eric M.P. Chiu & Greg Richey & Thomas D. Willett, 2017. "Do financial crises discipline future credit growth?," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(3), pages 284-301, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jfeppp:jfep-03-2017-0020
    DOI: 10.1108/JFEP-03-2017-0020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JFEP-03-2017-0020/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JFEP-03-2017-0020/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/JFEP-03-2017-0020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ongena, Steven & Popov, Alexander & Udell, Gregory F., 2013. "“When the cat's away the mice will play”: Does regulation at home affect bank risk-taking abroad?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 727-750.
    2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Demirgüç-Kunt, AslI & Detragiache, Enrica & Tressel, Thierry, 2008. "Banking on the principles: Compliance with Basel Core Principles and bank soundness," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 511-542, October.
    4. Mr. Marc G Quintyn & Ms. Rosaria Vega Pansini & Donato Masciandaro, 2011. "The Economic Crisis: Did Financial Supervision Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2011/261, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Marc Quintyn & Michael W. Taylor, 2003. "Regulatory and Supervisory Independence and Financial Stability," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 49(2), pages 259-294.
    6. Wilf, Meredith, 2016. "Credibility and Distributional Effects of International Banking Regulations: Evidence from US Bank Stock Returns," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 763-796, October.
    7. Jackson, Howell E. & Roe, Mark J., 2009. "Public and private enforcement of securities laws: Resource-based evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 207-238, August.
    8. Mr. Bas B. Bakker & Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Hui Tong, 2012. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: How to Deal with Credit Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2012/006, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
    10. James R. Barth & Chen Lin & Clas Wihlborg (ed.), 2012. "Research Handbook on International Banking and Governance," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14045.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    12. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2014. "Resolving Debt Overhang: Political Constraints in the Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 1-28, April.
    13. Bas B. Bakker & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Jérôme Vandenbussche & Deniz O Igan & Hui Tong, 2012. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability; How to Deal with Credit Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/06, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Elod Takáts & Christian Upper, 2013. "Credit and growth after financial crises," BIS Working Papers 416, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Yiqun Wu, 2011. "Rapid Credit Growth: Boon or Boom-Bust?," IMF Working Papers 2011/241, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update," IMF Working Papers 2012/163, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ha, Eunyoung & Kang, Myung-koo, 2015. "Government Policy Responses to Financial Crises: Identifying Patterns and Policy Origins in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 264-281.
    2. Puspa D. Amri & Eric M. P. Chiu & Jacob M. Meyer & Greg M. Richey & Thomas D. Willett, 2022. "Correlates of Crisis Induced Credit Market Discipline: The Roles of Democracy, Veto Players, and Government Turnover," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 61-87, February.
    3. Kashif Abbass & Abdul Aziz Khan Niazi & Abdul Basit & Tehmina Fiaz Qazi & Huaming Song & Halima Begum, 2021. "Uncovering Effects of Hot Potatoes in Banking System: Arresting Die-Hard Issues," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miguel Angel Saldarriaga, 2017. "Credit Booms in Commodity Exporters," Working Papers 98, Peruvian Economic Association.
    2. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
    3. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    4. Channarith Meng & Roberto Leon Gonzalez, 2017. "Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 547-579, July.
    5. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    6. Vincenzo Cuciniello & Nicola di Iasio, 2020. "Determinants of the credit cycle: a flow analysis of the extensive margin," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1266, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Miroslav Plasil & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac, 2015. "In the Quest of Measuring the Financial Cycle," Working Papers 2015/05, Czech National Bank.
    8. Oliver Röhn & Aida Caldera Sánchez & Mikkel Hermansen & Morten Rasmussen, 2015. "Economic resilience: A new set of vulnerability indicators for OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1249, OECD Publishing.
    9. Akinci, Ozge & Olmstead-Rumsey, Jane, 2018. "How effective are macroprudential policies? An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 33-57.
    10. Fendoğlu, Salih, 2017. "Credit cycles and capital flows: Effectiveness of the macroprudential policy framework in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 110-128.
    11. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Nakije Miftar Kida, 2021. "The Impact of FDI on the Structure of the Kosovo Economy," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 3, May - Aug.
    13. Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 965-1001, November.
    14. Puspa D. Amri & Greg M. Richey & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Surges and Credit Booms: How Tight is the Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 637-670, September.
    15. Rövekamp, Ingmar & Eichler, Stefan, 2016. "A market-based indicator of currency risk: Evidence from American Depositary Receipts," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145791, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2014. "Equilibrium credit: The reference point for macroprudential supervisors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-154.
    17. Kristin J. Forbes, 2021. "The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 203-228, August.
    18. Miroslav Plašil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlaváč, 2016. "A New Measure of the Financial Cycle: Application to the Czech Republic," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 296-318, July.
    19. Cerutti, Eugenio & Dagher, Jihad & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni, 2017. "Housing finance and real-estate booms: A cross-country perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    20. Irina Balteanu & Aitor Erce, 2018. "Linking Bank Crises and Sovereign Defaults: Evidence from Emerging Markets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 617-664, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; Financial markets and the macroeconomy; Credit; International finance; E44; E50; F30; G28;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jfeppp:jfep-03-2017-0020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.