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Does central bank credibility from professional forecasters and consumers affect the interest rate and its expectations?

Author

Listed:
  • Helder Ferreira de Mendonça
  • Cristiane Nascimento de Lima

Abstract

Purpose - This paper aims to contribute to the analysis concerning how inflation forecasts from different economic agents (professional forecasters and consumers) lead to varying levels of central bank credibility and how it affects the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations. Design/methodology/approach - Based on the Brazilian economy data from June 2007 to May 2022, the authors provide evidence that is useful for search mechanisms that improve the conduct of monetary policy through the management of inflation expectations. The authors perform several ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments regressions inspired by the Taylor rule principle. In brief, the benchmark model considers that the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations respond to departures of inflation expectations to the target (a proxy for central bank credibility) and the level of economic activity. Findings - The main result of the analysis is that inflation expectations from professional forecasters and consumers imply different perceptions of central bank credibility that affect the monetary policy interest rate and expectations for horizons until one year ahead. Originality/value - The novelty that the authors bring from the analysis is that the authors calculate central bank credibility by taking into account the “public beliefs” of different economic agents. Furthermore, the authors analyze the effect of central bank credibility from professional forecasters and consumers on the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Cristiane Nascimento de Lima, 2023. "Does central bank credibility from professional forecasters and consumers affect the interest rate and its expectations?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(4), pages 895-918, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-04-2023-0205
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-04-2023-0205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Applications of Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 87-100, Fall.
    2. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "How should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 195-259.
    3. Grégory Levieuge & Yannick Lucotte & Sébastien Ringuedé, 2018. "Central bank credibility and the expectations channel: evidence based on a new credibility index," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(3), pages 493-535, August.
    4. John B. Taylor, 2021. "Simple monetary rules: many strengths and few weaknesses," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 267-283, December.
    5. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2018. "Credibility and Inflation Expectations: What we can tell from seven emerging economies?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1165-1181.
    6. Conrad, Christian & Enders, Zeno & Glas, Alexander, 2022. "The role of information and experience for households’ inflation expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    8. Michael Bordo & Pierre Siklos, 2014. "Central Bank Credibility, Reputation and Inflation Targeting in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 20693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2009. "Output‐inflation and unemployment‐inflation trade‐offs under inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(1), pages 66-82, January.
    10. Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2020. "Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," NBER Working Papers 27800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Bicchal, Motilal, 2022. "Central bank credibility and its effect on stabilization," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 73-94.
    12. Helder de Mendonca, 2007. "Towards credibility from inflation targeting: the Brazilian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2599-2615.
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    Cited by:

    1. Salha Ben Salem & Moez Labidi, 2024. "Financial friction and optimal monetary policy: analysis of DSGE model with financial friction and price sticky," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(7), pages 1-24, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank credibility; Monetary policy interest rate; Interest rate expectations; Professional forecasters' expectations; Consumers' expectations; E31; E43; E52;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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