The net effect of the travel restriction policy on tourism demand: evidence from Greece

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to provide up-to-date evidence on the net effect of COVID-19 pandemic on international arrivals and occupancy rates in Greece. Analysis and forecasting point out the demand for 2020, and thus yielding more concrete evidence on the pure effect of the pandemic on the tourism industry. Design/methodology/approach - Monthly observations from January 2000 to December 2020 were extracted from the Tourist Enterprises Association (SETE) for Athens, Thessaloniki, Kalamata, Rhodes, Mytilene, Santorini, Zante, Kefalonia and Crete. To model and forecast the volatility and the time trend effect of tourist arrivals individually, the study applies the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (p,d,q) and the error, trend, seasonality (ETS) model. Findings - Empirical results suggested that Athens, Thessaloniki and Crete were three destinations with the worst losses in international tourist arrivals. Specifically, Athens was expecting to have (without the existence of COVID-19) more than 330,000 tourist arrivals in December 2020 while instead only 73,000 international tourists visited Athens that period. Similarly, Thessaloniki and the island of Crete lost more than 150,000 international visitors during December 2020. Originality/value - The author’s study adds to a growing number of studies regarding the impact of COVID-19 by incorporating monthly international arrival data and occupancy rate data for the whole 2020 reflecting differences in transportation or vacation choices. Also, the authors operationalized multiple time-series forecasting models (ETS and ARIMA) for reaching more concrete forecasts and estimates on the effect of COVID-19 on the Greek tourism sector.