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Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An application of ARDL approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Hassan Shakil
  • Is’haq Muhammad Mustapha
  • Mashiyat Tasnia
  • Buerhan Saiti

Abstract

Purpose - The argument whether gold is a hedge or haven is a debatable issue. Mainly, hedge is a class of asset that is negatively correlated with another asset or portfolio on average. On the other hand, a safe haven is an asset or portfolio which is negatively correlated with another asset or portfolio at the time of market turmoil. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to take Saudi Arabia as an example to examine the relationship of gold price in Saudi Arabia with key determinants such as the stock market index, oil prices, exchange rate, interest rate and consumer price index (CPI) by application of the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). Design/methodology/approach - The ARDL analysis was employed by using six variables based on the application of monthly time series data that were collected from 2011 to 2015. Findings - From the present analysis, it has been discovered that gold is useful as a portfolio hedge and as a hedge against inflation because it is not affected by the CPI. External factors, for example, financial crisis, may be harmful to the CPI, thus adding a certain percentage of gold in the investment portfolio may assist in decreasing the level of risk at the time of financial turmoil. Originality/value - Because gold seems to be a useful portfolio hedge, as well as an inflation hedge, government policies to curb the import of gold may be futile. The present research suggests that policies that directly address the causes of inflation and provide alternative investment opportunities for retail investors may better serve the objective of decreasing gold imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Hassan Shakil & Is’haq Muhammad Mustapha & Mashiyat Tasnia & Buerhan Saiti, 2018. "Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An application of ARDL approach," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 23(44), pages 60-76, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jefasp:jefas-03-2017-0052
    DOI: 10.1108/JEFAS-03-2017-0052
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    Cited by:

    1. Madziwa, Lawrence & Pillalamarry, Mallikarjun & Chatterjee, Snehamoy, 2022. "Gold price forecasting using multivariate stochastic model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Huseyin Ozdemir, 2021. "Dynamic return and volatility spillovers among S&P 500, crude oil, and gold," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 153-170, January.
    3. Emmanuel Anoruo, 2019. "Asymmetric Causality Analysis of the Interactions Between Gold and REIT Returns," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(4), pages 513-534.
    4. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming, 2022. "Is gold a safe haven for exchange rate risks? An empirical study of major currency countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Atri, Hanen & Kouki, Saoussen & Gallali, Mohamed imen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 news, panic and media coverage on the oil and gold prices: An ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Olubiyi, Ebenezer A. & Adedeji, Adedayo O., 2023. "The inflation-hedging performance of industrial metals in the world's most industrialized countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Sánchez Arévalo, Jorge Luis & Ferreira de Andrade, Alisson Maxwell & de Oliveira Vendramin, Elisabeth, 2023. "Ibovespa’s response to the behavior of oil and ore prices during the international crisis caused by COVID-19," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 15(1), pages 21-43, January.
    8. Carlos Alberto Tovar Jaco & Madeleyne Karol Mucha Alhuay & Pedro Bernabe Venegas Rodriguez & Nivardo Alonzo Santill¨¢n Zapata & Jimmy Alberth Deza Quispe, 2021. "Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Peruvian Gold Export Value in the Period 2003-2019," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(2), pages 43-54, April.
    9. Didik Susilo & Sugeng Wahyudi & Irene Rini Demi Pangestuti & Bayu Adi Nugroho & Robiyanto Robiyanto, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies: Hedging Opportunities From Domestic Perspectives in Southeast Asia Emerging Markets," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.
    10. I. Sahadudheen & P. K. Santhosh Kumar, 2023. "On the Time-varying Correlations and Hedging Effectiveness: An Analysis of Crude Oil, Gold, and Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 353-363, November.
    11. Robiyanto Robiyanto & Bayu Adi Nugroho & Eka Handriani & Andrian Dolfriandra Huruta, 2020. "Hedge effectiveness of put replication, gold, and oil on ASEAN-5 equities," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-29, December.
    12. José, Barrales-Ruíz & Pino, Gabriel, 2024. "On the effect of short-run and long-run US economic expectations on oil and gold volatilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    13. Rupel Nargunam & William W. S. Wei & N. Anuradha, 2021. "Investigating seasonality, policy intervention and forecasting in the Indian gold futures market: a comparison based on modeling non-constant variance using two different methods," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, December.
    14. Jose Fernando Vilcarromero Arbulu & Jorge Luis Castilla Raimundo & Pedro Bernabe Venegas Rodriguez & Nivardo Alonzo Santillan Zapata & Jimmy Alberth Deza Quispe, 2021. "Financial Factors and Their Relative Importance Analysis in Peruvian Gold Mining Companies¡¯ Stock Price," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(2), pages 251-262, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL; Oil price; Gold price; Islamic stocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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