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Network-based measures of systemic risk in Korea

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  • Jaewon Choi
  • Jieun Lee

Abstract

- The authors estimate systemic risk in the Korean economy using the econometric measures of commonality and connectedness applied to stock returns. To assess potential systemic risk concerns arising from the high concentration of the economy in large business groups and a few export-oriented sectors, the authors perform three levels of estimation using individual stocks, business groups, and industry returns. The results show that the measures perform well over the study’s sample period by indicating heightened levels of commonality and interconnectedness during crisis periods. In out-of-sample tests, the measures can predict future losses in the stock market during the crises. The authors also provide the recent readings of their measures at the market, chaebol, and industry levels. Although the measures indicate systemic risk is not a major concern in Korea, as they tend to be at the lowest level since 1998, there is an increasing trend in commonality and connectedness since 2017. Samsung and SK exhibit increasing degrees of commonality and connectedness, perhaps because of their heavy dependence on a few major member firms. Commonality in the finance industry has not subsided since the financial crisis, suggesting that systemic risk is still a concern in the banking sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaewon Choi & Jieun Lee, 2023. "Network-based measures of systemic risk in Korea," Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(3), pages 174-196, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jdqspp:jdqs-07-2022-0018
    DOI: 10.1108/JDQS-07-2022-0018
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Network analysis; Korean economy; G11; G14; G23;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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