Assessing trade supply chain vulnerability and trade participation of SMEs in India: insights from a comprehensive analysis

Purpose - This study presents the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU)-induced Trade Supply Chain Vulnerability (TSCV) on the Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) in India by leveraging the World Bank Enterprise Survey data for 2014 and 2022. Applying econometric techniques, it examines firm size’ influence on productivity and trade participation, providing insights for enhancing SME resilience and trade participation amid uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach - The econometric techniques focus on export participation, along with variables such as total exports, firm size, productivity, and capital intensity. It addresses crucial factors such as the direct import of intermediate goods and foreign ownership. Utilizing the Cobb-Douglas production function, the study estimates Total Factor Productivity, mitigating endogeneity and multicollinearity through a two-stage process. Besides, the study uses a case study of North Indian SMEs engaged in manufacturing activities and their adoption of mitigation strategies to combat unprecedented EPU. Findings - Results reveal that EPU-induced TSCV reduces exports, impacting employment and firm size. Increased productivity, driven by technological adoption, correlates with improved export performance. The study highlights the negative impact of TSCV on trade participation, particularly for smaller Indian firms. Moreover, SMEs implement cost-based, supplier-based, and inventory-based strategies more than technology-based and risk-based strategies. Practical implications - Policy recommendations include promoting increased imports and inward foreign direct investment to enhance small firms’ trade integration during economic uncertainty. Tailored support for smaller firms, considering their limited capacity, is crucial. Encouraging small firms to engage in international trade and adopting diverse SC mitigation strategies associated with policy uncertainty are vital considerations. Originality/value - This study explores the impact of EPU-induced TSCV on Indian SMEs’ trade dynamics, offering nuanced insights for policymakers to enhance SME resilience amid uncertainty. The econometric analysis unveils patterns in export behavior, productivity, and factors influencing trade participation during economic uncertainty.