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Rising food inflation and India's monetary policy

Author

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  • Vivek Moorthy
  • Shrikant Kolhar

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implications of sharply rising food prices for monetary policy in India and similar emerging economies at present. Design/methodology/approach - This paper uses analytical arguments from relevant macroeconomic literature and evidence from late 1960s US data to examine whether the 1970s stagflation was due to the OPEC price hike. It develops a two person (rich and poor), two commodity (food and non‐food) model to examine the impact of rising food prices on GDP, on measures of inflation, and on welfare, in the model. Findings - Previously neglected evidence indicates that stagflation (simultaneously rising unemployment and inflation) preceded the OPEC price hike. The model results indicate that when food prices rise, the GDP deflator falls relative to the consumer price index (CPI). Research limitations/implications - The impact of supply shocks should be investigated by carefully examining links between abnormal rainfall and weather and output and prices on commodity by commodity basis. Further, technical issues pertaining to construction of a composite CPI representative of the population need to be explored. Practical implications - Monetary policy in India (and similar emerging economies) should focus upon a population weighted CPI or some variant thereof. Social implications - High GDP growth should not lead to complacency, since when food prices are rising, the overall welfare impact may be negative. Originality/value - The model presented in this paper explains the sustained divergence in India, in recent years, between the CPI versus the GDP deflator measures of inflation. It also highlights a possible similar divergence between GDP and overall welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Vivek Moorthy & Shrikant Kolhar, 2011. "Rising food inflation and India's monetary policy," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(1), pages 73-94, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:igdrpp:v:4:y:2011:i:1:p:73-94
    DOI: 10.1108/17538251111125016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. anonymous, 1990. "Intermediate targets and indicators for monetary policy: a critical survey," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, number 1990itaifmac.
    2. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 160-164, May.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 1995. "The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 318-334, May.
    4. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    5. Bharat Trehan, 1986. "Oil prices, exchange rates and the U.S. economy: an empirical investigation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 25-43.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dega Nagaraju & A. Ramakrishna Rao & S. Narayanan & P. Pandian, 2016. "Optimal cycle time and inventory decisions in coordinated and non-coordinated two-echelon inventory system under inflation and time value of money," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 2709-2730, May.
    2. Iddrisu, Abdul-Aziz & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2020. "Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

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