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Impact of FOMC announcement on stock price index in Southeast Asian countries

Author

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  • Trung Hoang Bao
  • Cesario Mateus

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, which includes information about the targeted Federal fund rate and revision to the future path of monetary policy on Southeast Asian stock market performance. Design/methodology/approach - This paper has used a sample of five national equity market indexes over the period 1997-2013 that covers 132 scheduled FOMC meetings. The authors have developed the model of Wongswan (2009) and Kontonikaset al.(2013) to quantify target surprise and path surprise. Findings - The results first show that all the stock markets examined do respond to information in FOMC announcements. Second, the target Federal fund rate has more impact on Southeast Asian stocks performance than information about the future path of monetary policy does. Third, different Southeast Asian equity markets respond similarly to targeting the Federal fund rate, while the responses to monetary policy differ from each other. Fourth, the response of each country to the FOMC announcement is not statistically different in the two periods of financial crisis. Research limitations/implications - Southeast Asian financial markets are increasingly highly correlated to the US market. The main channel in which FOMC announcement has impact on Southeast Asian stock markets is through US price transmission. This is the case of foreign firms borrowing from the US market. Then, an increase in interest rate, which means that the cost of financing increases, will lower firm equity value. Originality/value - The understanding of the response of the Southeast Asian stock markets to target surprise and path surprise, and the impact of each surprise in different time periods, would be important to investors and encourage further discussion amongst academics in Southeast Asia, where stock markets have been emerging in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Trung Hoang Bao & Cesario Mateus, 2017. "Impact of FOMC announcement on stock price index in Southeast Asian countries," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(3), pages 370-386, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:cfripp:cfri-06-2016-0051
    DOI: 10.1108/CFRI-06-2016-0051
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth & Mohan Nandha, 2004. "Interdependence and dynamic linkages between the emerging stock markets of South Asia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 44(3), pages 419-439, November.
    2. Suk-Joong Kim, 2018. "The Spillover Effects of US and Japanese Public Information News in Advanced Asia-Pacific Stock Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 6, pages 175-201, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Gavin, William T. & Mandal, Rachel J., 2003. "Evaluating FOMC forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 655-667.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asian financial crisis; FOMC; Interest rate surprises; Market reaction; Sub-prime mortgage crisis; E52; E58; E65; G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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