IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/elt/journl/v66y1999i264p663-692.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prueba de causalidad y determinación de la NAIRU

Author

Listed:
  • Bellod Redondo, José Francisco

    (Universidad de Murcia, España)

Abstract

In this paper we study the NAIRU conception and its determination for Spanish economy since 1976 to 1997. It’s a very important conception in actual Macroeconomics but there are strong controversies about it. We have linked it with other important conception –causality- and we have applied the Granger Causality test and Sims Causality test to NAIRU series trying to clarificate that controversies. Main results point that there isn’t causal relationship from NAIRU to inflation acceleration.// En este artículo estudiamos el concepto de NAIRU y su determinación para la economía española en el periodo 1976-1997. Se trata de un concepto de gran importancia en la macroeconomía actual, aunque existen grandes controversias acerca de su viabilidad. Hemos ligado este concepto a otro de no menos importancia- la causalidad- y para ello hemos aplicado las pruebas de causalidad de Granger y de Sims a las series de la NAIRU previamente determinadas con el fin de esclarecer tales controversias. Los resultados apuntan en la dirección de inexistencia de relación causal entre la NAIRU y la aceleración de la inflación.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellod Redondo, José Francisco, 1999. "Prueba de causalidad y determinación de la NAIRU," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 66(264), pages 663-692, octubre-d.
    • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:66:y:1999:i:264:p:663-692
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Ana R. de Lamo & Juan J. Dolado, 1993. "Un modelo del mercado de trabajo y la restricción de oferta en la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(1), pages 87-118, January.
    3. Allin Cottrell, 1984. "Keynesianism and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Problem in Pedagogy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 263-268, December.
    4. Akaike, Hirotugu, 1981. "Likelihood of a model and information criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-14, May.
    5. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Paul Davidson, 1984. "Reviving Keynes’s Revolution," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 561-575, July.
    8. repec:bla:econom:v:53:y:1986:i:210(s):p:s121-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Allin Cottrell, 1985. "Keynesianism and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Problem in Pedagogy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 7(2), pages 263-268, January.
    10. Anthony Myatt, 1986. "On the Non-Existence of a Natural Rate of Unemployment and Kaleckian Micro Underpinnings to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 447-462, March.
    11. Robert G. King & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 19(May), pages 2-12.
    12. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    13. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
    14. A. Asimakopulos, 1975. "A Kaleckian Theory of Income Distribution," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 8(3), pages 313-333, August.
    15. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February.
    16. Mayer, Thomas, 1980. "Economics as a Hard Science: Realistic Goal or Wishful Thinking?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 165-178, April.
    17. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
    18. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    19. Dudley Dillard, 1988. "The Barter Illusion in Classical and Neoclassical Economics," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 299-318, Oct-Dec.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gómez García, F. & Rebollo Sanz, Y. & Usabiaga Ibáñez, C., 2002. "Nuevas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española: métodos directos," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 509-530, Diciembre.
    2. Dionisio Ramirez & Gabriel Rodr¨ªguez, 2014. "Do Labor Reforms in Spain Have an Effect on the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate?," International Journal of Social Science Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 105-120, January.
    3. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2011. "La función de producción de Cobb-Douglas y la economía española," Revista de Economia Critica, Asociacion de Economia Critica, vol. 12, pages 9-38.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Macroeconomic activity dynamics and Granger causality: New evidence from a small developing economy based on a vector error-correction modelling analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-426, July.
    2. Renuka Mahadevan & John Asafu‐Adjaye, 2006. "Is There A Case For Low Inflation‐Induced Productivity Growth In Selected Asian Economies?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(2), pages 249-261, April.
    3. Rod Cross & Julia Darby & Jonathan Ireland, 1997. "Uncertainties Surrounding Natural Rate Estimates in the G7," Working Papers 9712, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Gómez García, F. & Rebollo Sanz, Y. & Usabiaga Ibáñez, C., 2002. "Nuevas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española: métodos directos," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 509-530, Diciembre.
    5. S. Gurcan Gulen, 1996. "Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 43-57.
    6. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Empirical tests to discern the dynamic causal chain in macroeconomic activity: new evidence from Thailand and Malaysia based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction modeling approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 531-560, October.
    7. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2005. "Becker vs. Easterlin. Education, Fertility and Growth in France after World War II," Working Papers 05-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    8. Urmee Khan & Robert Lieli, 2010. "Information Processing in Prediction Markets: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 201426, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    9. Khan, Urmee & Lieli, Robert P., 2018. "Information flow between prediction markets, polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 696-710.
    10. Emerick, Paula A. & Willett, Lois Schertz & Novakovic, Andrew M., 1993. "Incorporating Price Regulation in Causality Tests for Dairy Markets," Staff Papers 121338, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    11. Hafer, R. W., 1985. "Choosing between M1 and debt as an intermediate target for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 89-132, January.
    12. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
    13. Roelf Bult, Jan & Leeflang, Peter S. H. & Wittink, Dick R., 1997. "The relative performance of bivariate causality tests in small samples," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 450-464, March.
    14. Olajide Oladipo, 2013. "Does foreign direct investment cause long run economic growth? Evidence from the Latin American and the Caribbean countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 569-582, December.
    15. Keating, John W. & Smith, A. Lee, 2019. "The optimal monetary instrument and the (mis)use of causality tests," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 90-99.
    16. Leon Shilton, 2000. "Random Walks and the Cointegration of the ACLI and NCREIF," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 435-465.
    17. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "Can family-planning programs "cause" a significant fertility decline in countries characterized by very low levels of socioeconomic development? New evidence from Bangladesh based on dynamic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 441-468, August.
    18. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "FDI and trade--Two-way linkages?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 317-337, July.
    20. Tai-Yuen HON, 2015. "Causality Relationship between Money, Income, Price and Exchange Rates in a Small Open Economy: the Case of Hong Kong," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 350-363, December.

    More about this item

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. NAIRU in Wikipedia Spanish

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:66:y:1999:i:264:p:663-692. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nuria Pliego Vinageras (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.fondodeculturaeconomica.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.