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Long-Run Determinants of Economic Growth: Putterman and Weil Revisited

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  • Jason Briggeman

Abstract

How strongly is ‘deep’ history related to present GDP per capita, and how ‘deep’ are we talking? In a number of papers, Louis Putterman and collaborators claim that the relationship is strong and that several thousands of years of history are relevant. I replicate some of the work by Putterman and Weil (2010, Quarterly Journal of Economics), who found a “surprisingly” strong linear relationship between migration-adjusted state history during the first fifteen centuries of the Common Era and present income. I present four main empirical findings. First, by restoring dozens of countries mistakenly dropped from their regressions, I find the linear relationship is somewhat weaker than they reported. Second, I find that weighting the data to address the endogeneity of present-day borders—a concern raised but not addressed by Borcan, Olsson, and Putterman (2018)—causes the linear relationship to become markedly weaker or even nonexistent. Third, I conduct robustness checks that are suggested or implied but not pursued in Putterman’s work, generally finding a weaker linear relationship or no linear relationship. For example, there is no linear relationship when grouping countries into 11 world regions defined by Putterman and Weil themselves, nor is there a linear relationship when looking at sub-Saharan African countries alone. For another example, the linear relationship is weak when using GDP per capita for the year 1960 rather than the year 2000. Fourth, I show that had their data been correct, Putterman and Weil (2010) would have found a statistically significant quadratic relationship between their 1,500 years of state history and present income had they tested for it, which refutes the finding by Borcan, Olsson, and Putterman (2018) that a quadratic relationship only exists when using additional thousands of years of history. I then ask by what standard any of these results, whether in Putterman and Weil’s original presentation or herein revisited, can be deemed surprising; I propose one standard by which I find the results to be unsurprising. I close by calling attention to some problems with the “World Migration Matrix” data set constructed by Putterman and Weil (2010) and used in numerous studies.

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  • Jason Briggeman, 2022. "Long-Run Determinants of Economic Growth: Putterman and Weil Revisited," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 19(1), pages 1-85–108, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ejw:journl:v:19:y:2022:i:1:p:85-108
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2013. "How Deep Are the Roots of Economic Development?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 325-369, June.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2002. "Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1231-1294.
    3. Louis Putterman & David N. Weil, 2010. "Post-1500 Population Flows and The Long-Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1627-1682.
    4. Diego Comin & William Easterly & Erick Gong, 2010. "Was the Wealth of Nations Determined in 1000 BC?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 65-97, July.
    5. Oana Borcan & Ola Olsson & Louis Putterman, 2018. "State history and economic development: evidence from six millennia," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-40, March.
    6. Morgan Kelly, 2019. "The Standard Errors of Persistence," Working Papers 201913, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    7. Matthias M. Cinyabuguma & Louis Putterman, 2011. "Sub-Saharan Growth Surprises: Being Heterogeneous, Inland and Close to the Equator Does not Slow Growth Within Africa-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 20(2), pages 217-262, March.
    8. Louis Putterman, 2000. "Can an evolutionary approach to development predict post-war economic growth?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 1-30.
    9. Kelly, Morgan, 2019. "The Standard Errors of Persistence," CEPR Discussion Papers 13783, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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