National Consumption and Global Trade Impacts on Biodiversity

Effective and equitable conservation requires understanding of the global biodiversity impacts inflicted by consumption in individual countries and those embodied in international trade. Research to date has ascertained these impacts in terms of threats, but not on species directly. Here we use a novel approach, by parametrizing the countryside species-area relationship (SAR) (a). Using a recent high-resolution and harmonized global land use map along with (b). IUCN habitat classification data for all 22,386 mammal, bird, and amphibian species, to project endemic species extinctions due to habitat loss to date across all 804 terrestrial ecoregions; and then, (c). Validating the projected extinctions with IUCN Red List. We allocate projected extinctions to the agriculture, pasture, urban, and forestry areas used, traded, and consumed in 129 countries, using an environmentally extended global multi-regional input output database. Results show that for the three taxa combined, a total of 927 endemic species are projected to go extinct due to the impacts of current global land use. The taxonomic breakdown is 186 projected mammal extinctions, 170 birds, and 571 amphibians, with global agriculture land use responsible for 267 projected extinctions; pasture 314, forestry 313, and urbanization 32. Importantly, countryside SAR projections compare well with the number of extinct and threatened species documented by the IUCN Red List. We found that land use for export production is responsible for 25% of these projected global extinctions. Our approach enables parametrization of countryside SARs in any world region even without extensive field studies, and therefore allows quantitative assessment of biodiversity impacts under alternative land use scenarios. Overall, our approach and findings can inform sustainability assessment of commodity supply-chains as well as specific national actions toward achievement of the Aichi 2020 and UN Sustainable Development Goals.