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Land tenure, price shocks, and insurgency: Evidence from Peru and Colombia

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  • Guardado, Jenny

Abstract

The paper examines how property arrangements – a key determinant of rural income – influence armed conflict in the presence of commodity price shocks. Using detailed data on district level land tenure, crop produce, and conflict intensity in Peru and Colombia, estimates show that exogenous negative price shocks increase the intensity of conflict in districts with a greater presence of individual ownership, relative to other types of land tenure. The finding is consistent with small landowners in the export sector experiencing a sharper downturn in labor market outcomes thus reducing the opportunity cost of participating in insurgent groups.

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  • Guardado, Jenny, 2018. "Land tenure, price shocks, and insurgency: Evidence from Peru and Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 256-269.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:256-269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.07.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Albertus, 2020. "Land Reform and Civil Conflict: Theory and Evidence from Peru," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(2), pages 256-274, April.
    2. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2021. "Murder nature weather and violent crime in Brazil," Discussion Papers 2021/2, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Sanchez Torres, Fabio, 2024. "Ideology and Rifles: The Agrarian Origins of Civil Conflict in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2022. "Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    5. Harris,Colin & Cai,Meina & Murtazashvili,Ilia & Murtazashvili,Jennifer Brick, 2020. "The Origins and Consequences of Property Rights," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108969055, November.
    6. Guardado,Jenny & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2020. "The Seasonality of Conflict," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9373, The World Bank.
    7. Babatunde Abidoye & Massimiliano Calì, 2021. "Income Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 30(5), pages 480-509.
    8. Heesun Yoo, 2022. "Does “green gold” breed bloody violence? The effect of export shocks on criminal violence in Mexico," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1048-1060, September.
    9. Jin, Gui & Chen, Kun & Wang, Pei & Guo, Baishu & Dong, Yin & Yang, Jun, 2019. "Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 36-46.

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