IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v101y2021icp1-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting weather-induced delays of high-speed rail and aviation in China

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Zhenhua
  • Wang, Yuxuan
  • Zhou, Lei

Abstract

High-speed rail (HSR) has become a competitive mode with aviation for medium-distance intercity travel, given the massive deployment of the HSR infrastructure network in China. While the travel experience with both HSR and air has become more convenient, the systems’ operational reliability in terms of punctuality remains a key concern, especially during disruptive events, such as under severe weather conditions. Although previous studies have attempted to investigate the impact of severe weather events on the operational performance of transportation systems, there is still a lack of ability to forecast to what extent the performance of different transportation systems may vary under various conditions. This study develops an integrated modeling framework that allows us to predict the performance of weather-induced delays of different transportation systems, including HSR and aviation. By applying machine-learning methods to real-world transportation performance data, the study examines the robustness of the method, variations of data characteristics and the different applications of the predictive modeling system. Overall, the concept and modeling framework provide important implications for the improvement of transportation system resilience to various severe weather-related disruptions through the understanding of the impact and its predictability of the system performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zhenhua & Wang, Yuxuan & Zhou, Lei, 2021. "Predicting weather-induced delays of high-speed rail and aviation in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:101:y:2021:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.11.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X20309252
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.11.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reynolds-Feighan, Aisling J. & Button, Kenneth J., 1999. "An assessment of the capacity and congestion levels at European airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 113-134.
    2. Liu, Kai & Wang, Ming & Cao, Yinxue & Zhu, Weihua & Yang, Guiling, 2018. "Susceptibility of existing and planned Chinese railway system subjected to rainfall-induced multi-hazards," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 214-226.
    3. Ethan D. Coffel & Terence R. Thompson & Radley M. Horton, 2017. "The impacts of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 381-388, September.
    4. Han, Gain & Sohn, Keemin, 2016. "Activity imputation for trip-chains elicited from smart-card data using a continuous hidden Markov model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 121-135.
    5. Kim, Amy & Hansen, Mark, 2013. "Deconstructing delay: A non-parametric approach to analyzing delay changes in single server queuing systems," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 119-133.
    6. Zhenhua Chen & Adam Rose, 2018. "Economic resilience to transportation failure: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1009-1027, July.
    7. Zhang, Anming & Wan, Yulai & Yang, Hangjun, 2019. "Impacts of high-speed rail on airlines, airports and regional economies: A survey of recent research," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-19.
    8. Pejovic, Tamara & Noland, Robert B. & Williams, Victoria & Toumi, Ralf, 2009. "A tentative analysis of the impacts of an airport closure," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 241-248.
    9. Liu, Shuli & Wan, Yulai & Ha, Hun-Koo & Yoshida, Yuichiro & Zhang, Anming, 2019. "Impact of high-speed rail network development on airport traffic and traffic distribution: Evidence from China and Japan," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 115-135.
    10. Diana Michalek Pfeil & Hamsa Balakrishnan, 2012. "Identification of Robust Terminal-Area Routes in Convective Weather," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(1), pages 56-73, February.
    11. Chen, Zhenhua & Rose, Adam Z. & Prager, Fynnwin & Chatterjee, Samrat, 2017. "Economic consequences of aviation system disruptions: A reduced-form computable general equilibrium analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 207-226.
    12. Abdel-Aty, Mohamed & Lee, Chris & Bai, Yuqiong & Li, Xin & Michalak, Martin, 2007. "Detecting periodic patterns of arrival delay," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 355-361.
    13. Chen, Zhenhua, 2017. "Impacts of high-speed rail on domestic air transportation in China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 184-196.
    14. Zhang, Qiong & Yang, Hangjun & Wang, Qiang, 2017. "Impact of high-speed rail on China’s Big Three airlines," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 77-85.
    15. Tu, Yufeng & Ball, Michael O. & Jank, Wolfgang S., 2008. "Estimating Flight Departure Delay DistributionsA Statistical Approach With Long-Term Trend and Short-Term Pattern," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 112-125, March.
    16. AhmadBeygi, Shervin & Cohn, Amy & Guan, Yihan & Belobaba, Peter, 2008. "Analysis of the potential for delay propagation in passenger airline networks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 221-236.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Tao & Rong, Lili, 2021. "Impacts of service feature on vulnerability analysis of high-speed rail network," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 238-253.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sternberg, Alice & Carvalho, Diego & Murta, Leonardo & Soares, Jorge & Ogasawara, Eduardo, 2016. "An analysis of Brazilian flight delays based on frequent patterns," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 282-298.
    2. Kim, Myeonghyeon & Bae, Jiheon, 2021. "Modeling the flight departure delay using survival analysis in South Korea," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Gu, Hongyi & Wan, Yulai, 2020. "Can entry of high-speed rail increase air traffic? Price competition, travel time difference and catchment expansion," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 55-72.
    4. Tan, Xinlong & Jia, Rongwen & Yan, Jia & Wang, Kun & Bian, Lei, 2021. "An Exploratory analysis of flight delay propagation in China," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    5. Wang, Jiaoe & Huang, Jie & Jing, Yue, 2020. "Competition between high-speed trains and air travel in China: From a spatial to spatiotemporal perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 62-78.
    6. Yang, Xiaolan & Wang, Rui & Guo, Dongmei & Sun, Weizeng, 2020. "The reconfiguration effect of China's high-speed railway on intercity connection ——A study based on media attention index," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 47-56.
    7. Yang, Hangjun & Ma, Wenliang & Wang, Qiang & Wang, Kun & Zhang, Yahua, 2020. "Welfare implications for air passengers in China in the era of high-speed rail," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-13.
    8. Asep Yayat Nurhidayat & Hera Widyastuti & Sutikno & Dwi Phalita Upahita, 2023. "Research on Passengers’ Preferences and Impact of High-Speed Rail on Air Transport Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-26, February.
    9. Li, Hongchang & Wang, Kun & Yu, Kemei & Zhang, Anming, 2020. "Are conventional train passengers underserved after entry of high-speed rail?-Evidence from Chinese intercity markets," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-9.
    10. Mizutani, Jun & Sakai, Hiroki, 2023. "The effects of frequent flyer programs in the competition with high speed rail: A case study of air passenger preference in Japan," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    11. Prager, Fynnwin & Rhoads, Mohja & Martínez, Jose N., 2022. "The COVID-19 economic shutdown and the future of flexible workplace practices in the South Bay region of Los Angeles County," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 241-255.
    12. Duan, Liaoliao & Sun, Weizeng & Zheng, Siqi, 2020. "Transportation network and venture capital mobility: An analysis of air travel and high-speed rail in China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    13. Wang, Wei & Sun, Huijun & Wu, Jianjun, 2020. "How does the decision of high-speed rail operator affect social welfare? Considering competition between high-speed rail and air transport," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-15.
    14. Bojia Ye & Bo Liu & Yong Tian & Lili Wan, 2020. "A Methodology for Predicting Aggregate Flight Departure Delays in Airports Based on Supervised Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-13, April.
    15. Li, Tao & Rong, Lili, 2020. "A comprehensive method for the robustness assessment of high-speed rail network with operation data: A case in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 666-681.
    16. Ma, Wenliang & Wang, Qiang & Yang, Hangjun & Zhang, Guoquan & Zhang, Yahua, 2020. "Understanding airline price dispersion in the presence of high-speed rail," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 93-102.
    17. Rodríguez-Sanz, à lvaro & Comendador, Fernando Gómez & Valdés, Rosa Arnaldo & Pérez-Castán, Javier A., 2018. "Characterization and prediction of the airport operational saturation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 147-172.
    18. Wei, Ming & Zhang, Shaopeng & Liu, Tao & Sun, Bo, 2023. "The adjusted passenger transportation efficiency of nine airports in China with consideration of the impact of high-speed rail network development: A two-step DEA-OLS method," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    19. Zhang, Anming & Wan, Yulai & Yang, Hangjun, 2019. "Impacts of high-speed rail on airlines, airports and regional economies: A survey of recent research," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-19.
    20. Zhang, Qiong & Yang, Hangjun & Wang, Qiang & Zhang, Anming & Zhang, Yahua, 2020. "Impact of high-speed rail on market concentration and Lerner index in China's airline market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:101:y:2021:i:c:p:1-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.