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Dynamic concurrent partnership networks incorporating demography

Author

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  • Leung, K.Y.
  • Kretzschmar, M.E.E.
  • Diekmann, O.

Abstract

We introduce a population model that incorporates •demographic turnover•individuals that are involved in a dynamically varying number of simultaneous partnerships From a mathematical point of view we deal with continuous-time Markov chains at the individual level, with the interaction between individuals captured by a global variable describing opportunities for new partnerships. We show that for large time a stationary distribution is attained and we deduce various statistical features of that distribution, with particular attention for concurrency, i.e. the overlap in time of multiple partnerships of one and the same individual. Our ultimate motivation is to model the spread of sexually transmitted infections in the population, for which the present paper serves as a prelude.

Suggested Citation

  • Leung, K.Y. & Kretzschmar, M.E.E. & Diekmann, O., 2012. "Dynamic concurrent partnership networks incorporating demography," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 229-239.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:82:y:2012:i:3:p:229-239
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2012.07.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Georges Reniers & Rania Tfaily, 2008. "Polygyny and HIV in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(53), pages 1811-1830.
    2. Martina Morris & Mirjam Kretzschmar, 2000. "A microsimulation study of the effect of concurrent partnerships on the spread of HIV in Uganda," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 109-133.
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