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Explaining the optimality of U-shaped age-specific mortality

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  • Chu, C.Y. Cyrus
  • Chien, Hung-Ken
  • Lee, Ronald D.

Abstract

Mortality is U-shaped with age for many species, declining from birth to sexual maturity, then rising in adulthood, sometimes with postreproductive survival. We show analytically why the optimal life history of a species with determinate growth is likely to have this shape. An organism allocates energy among somatic growth, fertility and maintenance/survival at each age. Adults may transfer energy to juveniles, who can then use more energy than they produce. Optimal juvenile mortality declines from birth to maturity, either to protect the increasingly valuable cumulative investments by adults in juveniles or to exploit the compounding effects of early investment in somatic growth, since early growth raises subsequent energy production, which in turn supports further growth. Optimal adult mortality rises after maturity as expected future reproduction declines as in Hamilton, but intergenerational transfers lead to postreproductive survival as in Lee. Here the Hamilton and transfer effects are divided by probabilities of survival in contrast to the fitness impact measures, which are relevant for mutation-selection balance. If energetic efficiency rises strongly with adult experience, then adult mortality could initially be flat or declining.

Suggested Citation

  • Chu, C.Y. Cyrus & Chien, Hung-Ken & Lee, Ronald D., 2008. "Explaining the optimality of U-shaped age-specific mortality," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 171-180.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:73:y:2008:i:2:p:171-180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2007.11.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James W. Vaupel & Annette Baudisch & Martin Dölling & Deborah A. Roach & Jutta Gampe, 2004. "The case for negative senescence," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2004-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Arthur J. Robson & Hillard S. Kaplan, 2003. "The Evolution of Human Life Expectancy and Intelligence in Hunter-Gatherer Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 150-169, March.
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    1. Cyrus Chu, C.Y. & Chien, Hung-Ken & Lee, Ronald D., 2010. "The evolutionary theory of time preferences and intergenerational transfers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 451-464, December.
    2. Feichtinger, Gustav & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2024. "The optimal momentum of population growth and decline," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 51-66.
    3. Michal Engelman & Christopher L. Seplaki & Ravi Varadhan, 2017. "A Quiescent Phase in Human Mortality? Exploring the Ages of Least Vulnerability," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(3), pages 1097-1118, June.
    4. Junji Kageyama & Kazuma Sato, 2021. "Explaining the U-shaped life satisfaction: dissatisfaction as a driver of behavior," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 179-202, July.
    5. Marcus Ebeling, 2018. "How Has the Lower Boundary of Human Mortality Evolved, and Has It Already Stopped Decreasing?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1887-1903, October.
    6. Cyrus Chu, C.Y. & Lee, Ronald D., 2012. "Sexual dimorphism and sexual selection: A unified economic analysis," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 82(4), pages 355-363.
    7. Junji Kageyama, 2011. "The intertemporal allocation of consumption, time preference, and life-history strategies," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 79-95, July.
    8. Nan Li & Ronald Lee & Patrick Gerland, 2013. "Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 2037-2051, December.

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