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Modelling and simulating Lenski’s long-term evolution experiment

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  • Baake, Ellen
  • González Casanova, Adrián
  • Probst, Sebastian
  • Wakolbinger, Anton

Abstract

We revisit the model by Wiser et al. (2013), which describes how the mean fitness increases over time due to beneficial mutations in Lenski’s long-term evolution experiment. We develop the model further both conceptually and mathematically. Conceptually, we describe the experiment with the help of a Cannings model with mutation and selection, where the latter includes diminishing returns epistasis. The analysis sheds light on the growth dynamics within every single day and reveals a runtime effect, that is, the shortening of the daily growth period with increasing fitness; and it allows to clarify the contribution of epistasis to the mean fitness curve. Mathematically, we explain rigorous results in terms of a law of large numbers (in the limit of infinite population size and for a certain asymptotic parameter regime), and present approximations based on heuristics and supported by simulations for finite populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Baake, Ellen & González Casanova, Adrián & Probst, Sebastian & Wakolbinger, Anton, 2019. "Modelling and simulating Lenski’s long-term evolution experiment," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 58-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:127:y:2019:i:c:p:58-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2019.03.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. González Casanova, Adrián & Kurt, Noemi & Wakolbinger, Anton & Yuan, Linglong, 2016. "An individual-based model for the Lenski experiment, and the deceleration of the relative fitness," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 126(8), pages 2211-2252.
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    Cited by:

    1. González Casanova, Adrián & Miró Pina, Verónica & Pardo, Juan Carlos, 2020. "The Wright–Fisher model with efficiency," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 33-46.

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