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Single and simultaneous binary mergers in Wright-Fisher genealogies

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  • Melfi, Andrew
  • Viswanath, Divakar

Abstract

The Kingman coalescent is a commonly used model in genetics, which is often justified with reference to the Wright-Fisher (WF) model. Current proofs of convergence of WF and other models to the Kingman coalescent assume a constant sample size. However, sample sizes have become quite large in human genetics. Therefore, we develop a convergence theory that allows the sample size to increase with population size. If the haploid population size is N and the sample size is N1∕3−ϵ, ϵ>0, we prove that Wright-Fisher genealogies involve at most a single binary merger in each generation with probability converging to 1 in the limit of large N. Single binary merger or no merger in each generation of the genealogy implies that the Kingman partition distribution is obtained exactly. If the sample size is N1∕2−ϵ, Wright-Fisher genealogies may involve simultaneous binary mergers in a single generation but do not involve triple mergers in the large N limit. The asymptotic theory is verified using numerical calculations. Variable population sizes are handled algorithmically. It is found that even distant bottlenecks can increase the probability of triple mergers as well as simultaneous binary mergers in WF genealogies.

Suggested Citation

  • Melfi, Andrew & Viswanath, Divakar, 2018. "Single and simultaneous binary mergers in Wright-Fisher genealogies," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 60-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:121:y:2018:i:c:p:60-71
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2018.04.001
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    1. Andrzej Polanski & Agnieszka Szczesna & Mateusz Garbulowski & Marek Kimmel, 2017. "Coalescence computations for large samples drawn from populations of time-varying sizes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, February.
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    1. Melfi, Andrew & Viswanath, Divakar, 2018. "The Wright–Fisher site frequency spectrum as a perturbation of the coalescent’s," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 81-92.

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