IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v90y2015ipap230-242.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Induced technological change in moderate and fragmented climate change mitigation regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Marcucci, Adriana
  • Turton, Hal

Abstract

Climate change mitigation efforts are currently characterized by a lack of globally coordinated measures and predominantly moderate regional action. This paper compares the results from different Integrated Assessment Models to analyze the impact of such moderate climate change mitigation actions on electricity technology deployment and development, along with the impact of first movers taking stringent unilateral action-specifically, the EU and an EU-plus-China coalition. We find that a fragmented regime with moderate climate and technology targets produces significant emission reductions and changes in the adoption of electricity technologies towards low-carbon alternatives, promoting global technology change. The adoption of more stringent policies by the first movers implies a further transformation of their electricity sectors, but technology deployment outside the coalition is not significantly affected. Furthermore, the results in some models show (1) that first movers can benefit from early action by increased access to low-carbon energy carriers and (2) that delayed action implies the lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies leading to a slower transformation of the electricity sector later.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcucci, Adriana & Turton, Hal, 2015. "Induced technological change in moderate and fragmented climate change mitigation regimes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 230-242.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:90:y:2015:i:pa:p:230-242
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.10.027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016251300303X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.10.027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olmstead, Sheila & Stavins, Robert, 2006. "An International Architecture for the Post-Kyoto Era," Working Paper Series rwp06-009, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Glachant, Matthieu & Ménière, Yann, 2008. "The Clean Development Mechanism and the international diffusion of technologies: An empirical study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1273-1283, April.
    3. Bosetti, Valentina & Tavoni, Massimo & Carraro, Carlo, 2009. "Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in Fast-Growing Countries: The Benefits of Early Action," Sustainable Development Papers 52541, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Bertrand Magne, Socrates Kypreos, and Hal Turton, 2010. "Technology Options for Low Stabilization Pathways with MERGE," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    5. Blanford, Geoffrey J., 2009. "R&D investment strategy for climate change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages 27-36.
    6. Kriegler, Elmar & Petermann, Nils & Krey, Volker & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Luderer, Gunnar & Ashina, Shuichi & Bosetti, Valentina & Eom, Jiyong & Kitous, Alban & Méjean, Aurélie & Paroussos, Leonida, 2015. "Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 45-61.
    7. Kypreos, Socrates & Turton, Hal, 2011. "Climate change scenarios and Technology Transfer Protocols," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 844-853, February.
    8. Sheila M. Olmstead & Robert N. Stavins, 2006. "An International Policy Architecture for the Post-Kyoto Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 35-38, May.
    9. Böhringer, Christoph & Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2012. "The role of border carbon adjustment in unilateral climate policy: Overview of an Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF 29)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 97-110.
    10. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
    11. J. Edmonds & L. Clarke & J. Lurz & M. Wise, 2008. "Stabilizing CO 2 concentrations with incomplete international cooperation," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 355-376, July.
    12. Keller, Wolfgang, 2010. "International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Technology Spillovers," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 793-829, Elsevier.
    13. Nikolaos Kouvaritakis & Antonio Soria & Stephane Isoard, 2000. "Modelling energy technology dynamics: methodology for adaptive expectations models with learning by doing and learning by searching," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 14(1/2/3/4), pages 104-115.
    14. Ad Seebregts & Tom Kram & Gerrit Jan Schaeffer & Alexandra Bos, 2000. "Endogenous learning and technology clustering: analysis with MARKAL model of the Western European energy system," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 14(1/2/3/4), pages 289-319.
    15. Kriegler, Elmar & Riahi, Keywan & Bauer, Nico & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Petermann, Nils & Bosetti, Valentina & Marcucci, Adriana & Otto, Sander & Paroussos, Leonidas & Rao, Shilpa & Arroyo Currás, T, 2015. "Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 24-44.
    16. repec:reg:rpubli:353 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Schneider, Malte & Holzer, Andreas & Hoffmann, Volker H., 2008. "Understanding the CDM's contribution to technology transfer," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2920-2928, August.
    18. Valentina Bosetti & Enrica De Cian, 2013. "A Good Opening: The Key to Make the Most of Unilateral Climate Action," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(2), pages 255-276, October.
    19. Massimo Tavoni & Enrica Cian & Gunnar Luderer & Jan Steckel & Henri Waisman, 2012. "The value of technology and of its evolution towards a low carbon economy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 39-57, September.
    20. Carraro, Carlo & De Cian, Enrica & Nicita, Lea & Massetti, Emanuele & Verdolini, Elena, 2010. "Environmental Policy and Technical Change: A Survey," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 4(2), pages 163-219, October.
    21. Clarke, Leon & Weyant, John & Edmonds, Jae, 2008. "On the sources of technological change: What do the models assume," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 409-424, March.
    22. Michael Jakob & Gunnar Luderer & Jan Steckel & Massimo Tavoni & Stephanie Monjon, 2012. "Time to act now? Assessing the costs of delaying climate measures and benefits of early action," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 79-99, September.
    23. Keppo, Ilkka & Strubegger, Manfred, 2010. "Short term decisions for long term problems – The effect of foresight on model based energy systems analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2033-2042.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yufen & Liu, Yanni, 2021. "How biased technological progress sustainably improve the energy efficiency: An empirical research of manufacturing industry in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    2. Loarne-Lemaire, Séverine Le & Bertrand, Gaël & Razgallah, Meriam & Maalaoui, Adnane & Kallmuenzer, Andreas, 2021. "Women in innovation processes as a solution to climate change: A systematic literature review and an agenda for future research," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    3. Li, Ke & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "How to promote energy efficiency through technological progress in China?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 812-821.
    4. Marcucci, Adriana & Fragkos, Panagiotis, 2015. "Drivers of regional decarbonization through 2100: A multi-model decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 111-124.
    5. Polzin, Friedemann, 2017. "Mobilizing private finance for low-carbon innovation – A systematic review of barriers and solutions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 525-535.
    6. Liu, Lu & Hejazi, Mohamad & Patel, Pralit & Kyle, Page & Davies, Evan & Zhou, Yuyu & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, James, 2015. "Water demands for electricity generation in the U.S.: Modeling different scenarios for the water–energy nexus," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 318-334.
    7. Meijer, L.L.J. & Huijben, J.C.C.M. & van Boxstael, A. & Romme, A.G.L., 2019. "Barriers and drivers for technology commercialization by SMEs in the Dutch sustainable energy sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 114-126.
    8. Kriegler, Elmar & Riahi, Keywan & Bauer, Nico & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Petermann, Nils & Bosetti, Valentina & Marcucci, Adriana & Otto, Sander & Paroussos, Leonidas & Rao, Shilpa & Arroyo Currás, T, 2015. "Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 24-44.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Enrica De Cian & Ilkka Keppo & Johannes Bollen & Samuel Carrara & Hannah Förster & Michael Hübler & Amit Kanudia & Sergey Paltsev & Ronald D. Sands & Katja Schumacher, 2013. "European-Led Climate Policy Versus Global Mitigation Action: Implications On Trade, Technology, And Energy," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-28.
    2. Marcucci, Adriana & Fragkos, Panagiotis, 2015. "Drivers of regional decarbonization through 2100: A multi-model decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 111-124.
    3. Riahi, Keywan & Kriegler, Elmar & Johnson, Nils & Bertram, Christoph & den Elzen, Michel & Eom, Jiyong & Schaeffer, Michiel & Edmonds, Jae & Isaac, Morna & Krey, Volker & Longden, Thomas & Luderer, Gu, 2015. "Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 8-23.
    4. Kriegler, Elmar & Riahi, Keywan & Bauer, Nico & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Petermann, Nils & Bosetti, Valentina & Marcucci, Adriana & Otto, Sander & Paroussos, Leonidas & Rao, Shilpa & Arroyo Currás, T, 2015. "Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 24-44.
    5. Iyer, Gokul C. & Clarke, Leon E. & Edmonds, James A. & Hultman, Nathan E. & McJeon, Haewon C., 2015. "Long-term payoffs of near-term low-carbon deployment policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 493-505.
    6. Enrica Cian & Valentina Bosetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2012. "Technology innovation and diffusion in “less than ideal” climate policies: An assessment with the WITCH model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 121-143, September.
    7. Criqui, P. & Mima, S. & Menanteau, P. & Kitous, A., 2015. "Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: An assessment with the POLES model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 119-136.
    8. Valentina Bosetti & Enrica De Cian, 2013. "A Good Opening: The Key to Make the Most of Unilateral Climate Action," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(2), pages 255-276, October.
    9. Loschel, Andreas, 2002. "Technological change in economic models of environmental policy: a survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2-3), pages 105-126, December.
    10. Leo Wangler, 2010. "Renewables and Innovation - Empirical Assessment and Theoretical Considerations," Jena Economics Research Papers 2010-002, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    11. Volker Krey, 2014. "Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 363-383, July.
    12. Iyer, Gokul & Hultman, Nathan & Eom, Jiyong & McJeon, Haewon & Patel, Pralit & Clarke, Leon, 2015. "Diffusion of low-carbon technologies and the feasibility of long-term climate targets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 103-118.
    13. Price, James & Keppo, Ilkka, 2017. "Modelling to generate alternatives: A technique to explore uncertainty in energy-environment-economy models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 356-369.
    14. Paroussos, Leonidas & Fragkos, Panagiotis & Capros, Pantelis & Fragkiadakis, Kostas, 2015. "Assessment of carbon leakage through the industry channel: The EU perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 204-219.
    15. Kypreos, Socrates, 2012. "From the Copenhagen Accord to efficient technology protocols," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 341-353.
    16. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin, 2019. "R&D intensity and carbon emissions in the G7: 1870–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 30-37.
    17. Santen, Nidhi R. & Anadon, Laura Diaz, 2016. "Balancing solar PV deployment and RD&D: A comprehensive framework for managing innovation uncertainty in electricity technology investment planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 560-569.
    18. Seidman, Laurence & Lewis, Kenneth, 2009. "Compensations and contributions under an international carbon treaty," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-350, May.
    19. Parrado, Ramiro & De Cian, Enrica, 2014. "Technology spillovers embodied in international trade: Intertemporal, regional and sectoral effects in a global CGE framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 76-89.
    20. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2009. "An Elaborated Global Climate Policy Architecture: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets for All Countries in All Decades," NBER Working Papers 14876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:90:y:2015:i:pa:p:230-242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.