IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v86y2014icp21-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Experience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management

Author

Listed:
  • Walz, A.
  • Braendle, J.M.
  • Lang, D.J.
  • Brand, F.
  • Briner, S.
  • Elkin, C.
  • Hirschi, C.
  • Huber, R.
  • Lischke, H.
  • Schmatz, D.R.

Abstract

Scenario analysis is a widely used approach to incorporate uncertainties in global change research. In the context of regional ecosystem service and landscape management where global IPCC climate simulations and their downscaled derivates are applied, it can be useful to work with regional socio-economic scenarios that are coherent with the global IPCC scenarios. The consistency with the original source scenarios, transparency and reproducibility of the methods used as well as the internal consistency of the derived scenarios are important methodological prerequisites for coherently downscaling pre-existing source scenarios. In contrast to well-established systematic-qualitative scenario techniques, we employ here a formal technique of scenario construction which combines expert judgement with a quantitative, indicator-based selection algorithm in order to deduce a formally consistent set of focus scenario. In our case study, these focus scenarios reflect the potential development pathways of major national-level drivers for ecosystem service management in Swiss mountain regions. The integration of an extra impact factor (“Global Trends”) directly referring to the four principle SRES scenario families, helped us to formally internalise base assumptions of IPCC SRES scenarios to regional scenarios that address a different thematic focus (ecosystem service management), spatial level (national) and time horizon (2050). Compared to the well-established systematic-qualitative approach, we find strong similarities between the two methods, including the susceptibility to personal judgement which is only partly reduced by the formal method. However, the formalised scenario approach conveys four clear advantages, (1) the better documentation of the process, (2) its reproducibility, (3) the openness in terms of the number and directions of the finally selected set of scenarios, and (4) its analytical power.

Suggested Citation

  • Walz, A. & Braendle, J.M. & Lang, D.J. & Brand, F. & Briner, S. & Elkin, C. & Hirschi, C. & Huber, R. & Lischke, H. & Schmatz, D.R., 2014. "Experience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 21-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:86:y:2014:i:c:p:21-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162513001820
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tietje, Olaf, 2005. "Identification of a small reliable and efficient set of consistent scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 418-432, April.
    2. Marco Moriondo & Marco Bindi & Zbigniew Kundzewicz & M. Szwed & A. Chorynski & P. Matczak & M. Radziejewski & D. McEvoy & Anita Wreford, 2010. "Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 657-679, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahn, Young-Hwan & Woo, Jung-Hun & Wagner, Fabian & Yoo, Seung Jick, 2019. "Downscaled energy demand projection at the local level using the Iterative Proportional Fitting procedure," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 384-400.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wreford, Anita & Topp, Cairistiona F.E., 2020. "Impacts of climate change on livestock and possible adaptations: A case study of the United Kingdom," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    2. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 2020. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899, May.
    3. Nazemi, Neda & Foley, Rider W. & Louis, Garrick & Keeler, Lauren Withycombe, 2020. "Divergent agricultural water governance scenarios: The case of Zayanderud basin, Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    4. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
    5. Trutnevyte, Evelina & Stauffacher, Michael & Scholz, Roland W., 2012. "Linking stakeholder visions with resource allocation scenarios and multi-criteria assessment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(3), pages 762-772.
    6. Esteve, Paloma & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Downing, Thomas E., 2015. "A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 49-58.
    7. Yingchun Li & Wei Xiong & Wei Hu & Pam Berry & Hui Ju & Erda Lin & Wen Wang & Kuo Li & Jie Pan, 2015. "Integrated assessment of China’s agricultural vulnerability to climate change: a multi-indicator approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 355-366, February.
    8. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Gatti, Stefano, 2013. "Risk analysis with contractual default. Does covenant breach matter?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 431-443.
    9. Evelina Trutnevyte & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Neil Strachan, 2016. "Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 373-379, April.
    10. Schönhart, Martin & Mitter, Hermine & Schmid, Erwin & Heinrich, Georg & Gobiet, Andreas, 2014. "Integrated Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Austrian Agriculture," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 63(3).
    11. Scholz, Roland W. & Czichos, Reiner & Parycek, Peter & Lampoltshammer, Thomas J., 2020. "Organizational vulnerability of digital threats: A first validation of an assessment method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 627-643.
    12. Kizildeniz, T. & Irigoyen, J.J & Pascual, I. & Morales, F., 2018. "Simulating the impact of climate change (elevated CO2 and temperature, and water deficit) on the growth of red and white Tempranillo grapevine in three consecutive growing seasons (2013–2015)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 220-230.
    13. Mike Hewitt & Janosch Ortmann & Walter Rei, 2022. "Decision-based scenario clustering for decision-making under uncertainty," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(2), pages 747-771, August.
    14. Wong, Man Hong, 2013. "Investment models based on clustered scenario trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 314-324.
    15. Parker, Andrew M. & Srinivasan, Sinduja V. & Lempert, Robert J. & Berry, Sandra H., 2015. "Evaluating simulation-derived scenarios for effective decision support," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 64-77.
    16. Ülengin, Füsun & Işık, Mine & Ekici, Şule Önsel & Özaydın, Özay & Kabak, Özgür & Topçu, Y. İlker, 2018. "Policy developments for the reduction of climate change impacts by the transportation sector," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 36-50.
    17. Borgonovo, E. & Cappelli, V. & Maccheroni, F. & Marinacci, M., 2018. "Risk analysis and decision theory: A bridge," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 280-293.
    18. Leclere, David & Jayet, Pierre-Alain & de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie, 2011. "Short-term Farm Level Adaptations of EU15 Agricultural Supply to Climate Change," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114391, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Plischke, Elmar, 2016. "Sensitivity analysis: A review of recent advances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 869-887.
    20. C Ram & G Montibeller & A Morton, 2011. "Extending the use of scenario planning and MCDA for the evaluation of strategic options," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(5), pages 817-829, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:86:y:2014:i:c:p:21-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.